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Obama Grabs Wide Lead Among Early Voters

Posted by SMAZ on Sun Oct 14 10:51:12 2012

fiogf49gjkf0d
Obama grabs wide lead among those who have already voted: Reuters/Ipsos poll
By Andy Sullivan | Reuters –

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney are neck and neck in opinion polls, but there is one area in which the incumbent appears to have a big advantage: those who have already cast their ballots.
Obama leads Romney by 59 percent to 31 percent among early voters, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling data compiled in recent weeks.
The sample size of early voters is relatively small, but the Democrat's margin is still well above the poll's credibility interval - a measurement of polls' accuracy - of 10 percentage points.

With the November 6 election just more than three weeks away, 7 percent of those surveyed said they had already voted either in person or by mail
The online poll is another sign that early voting is likely to play a bigger role this year than in 2008, when roughly one in three voters cast a ballot before Election Day. Voting is already under way in some form in at least 40 states.
Both the Obama and Romney teams are urging supporters to vote as soon as possible so the campaigns can focus their door-knocking and phone-calling operations on those who are still undecided or need more prodding to get to the polls.
Early voting was a big part of Obama's victory over Republican John McCain in 2008, and his campaign aims to repeat its success this year.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll indicates the campaign's efforts appear to be paying off, although its advantage could erode as Election Day approaches.
The Obama campaign says it is leading among early voters in Iowa and Ohio, and trailing by a smaller margin than 2008 in several other swing states. It expects its early voting efforts will help the campaign weather a blitz of negative ads expected to saturate the airwaves in battleground states in the final weeks before November 6.
"We've made early investments in battleground states - where we've been registering folks and keeping an open conversation going with undecided voters for months - to build a historic grass-roots organization that will pay off when the votes are counted," spokesman Adam Fetcher said.

ROMNEY CAMPAIGN CITES POST-DEBATE ENTHUSIASM
The Romney campaign says it is leading or even with Obama among early voters in several closely fought battleground states, including Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, Nevada and New Hampshire. The campaign says it has seen a spike in volunteering and voter enthusiasm among Republicans since Romney's strong debate performance against Obama on October 3.
"Not only are we keeping pace with the vaunted Obama machine, but we believe our ground game will put us over the finish line on Election Day," said Rich Beeson, the Romney campaign's political director.
George Mason University professor Michael McDonald, an expert on early voting, said it was difficult to tell how the results so far could affect the outcome of the race.
In North Carolina and Maine, Democrats seem to be voting in higher numbers than 2008, while Republicans seem to be voting in slightly lower numbers than four years ago, he said.
In Ohio, where voters do not register by party, early voting appears to be higher than normal in both Republican and Democratic areas, McDonald said.
In Iowa, about twice as many registered Democrats as Republicans have voted by now - a potential warning sign for the Romney campaign, he said.
"Romney needs a change here. The good news for Romney is day to day, incrementally, the numbers shift in his direction, so he may be able to catch up," McDonald said.
The accuracy of Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. For the 6,704 people who were asked whether they had voted yet, the credibility interval was 1.3 points. For the 361 people who replied that they had already cast their ballots, the credibility interval was 10 points.

(Editing By Alistair Bell and Peter Cooney; The Reuters/Ipsos database is now public and searchable here: http://tinyurl.com/reuterspoll)

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(997822)

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Re: Obama Grabs Wide Lead Among Early Voters

Posted by Easy on Sun Oct 14 11:24:11 2012, in response to Obama Grabs Wide Lead Among Early Voters, posted by SMAZ on Sun Oct 14 10:51:12 2012.

fiogf49gjkf0d
I'm surprised but shouldn't be. Early voters tend to mirror early opinion polls and the President had a significant lead early. Not that big though. I wonder if early voters are older?

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(997833)

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Bullshit: Obama Grabs Wide Lead Among Early Voters

Posted by Chris R16/R2730 on Sun Oct 14 13:02:33 2012, in response to Obama Grabs Wide Lead Among Early Voters, posted by SMAZ on Sun Oct 14 10:51:12 2012.

fiogf49gjkf0d
The numbers simply do not add up. To be believed, the number of requested ballots from Ohio that were sent to Republicans would have to be coming back 50/50 between the 2 candidates. The polls claiming this big Obama lead are not correlating to the number of callers saying they voted with Obama with the #'s of requested affidavit ballots. Someone's lying.

Less than 60% of the affidavit ballot requests have yet to be honored. Calm down, sparky. Romney's winning OH and IA.

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(997834)

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Bullshit: Obama Grabs Wide Lead Among Early Voters

Posted by Chris R16/R2730 on Sun Oct 14 13:03:10 2012, in response to Obama Grabs Wide Lead Among Early Voters, posted by SMAZ on Sun Oct 14 10:51:12 2012.

fiogf49gjkf0d
The numbers simply do not add up. To be believed, the number of requested ballots from Ohio that were sent to Republicans would have to be coming back 50/50 between the 2 candidates. The polls claiming this big Obama lead are not correlating the number of callers saying they voted with Obama with the #'s of requested affidavit ballots. Someone's lying.

Less than 60% of the affidavit ballot requests have yet to be honored. Calm down, sparky. Romney's winning OH and IA.

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(997837)

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Re: Bullshit: Obama Grabs Wide Lead Among Early Voters

Posted by RockParkMan on Sun Oct 14 13:09:03 2012, in response to Bullshit: Obama Grabs Wide Lead Among Early Voters, posted by Chris R16/R2730 on Sun Oct 14 13:03:10 2012.

fiogf49gjkf0d
If the NAZIS win, we NEED China to save us.

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(997839)

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Re: Obama Grabs Wide Lead Among Early Voters

Posted by Chris R16/R2730 on Sun Oct 14 13:53:56 2012, in response to Re: Obama Grabs Wide Lead Among Early Voters, posted by Easy on Sun Oct 14 11:24:11 2012.

fiogf49gjkf0d
If these #'s are to be believed, Romney must have commanding lead amongst those who will vote on Election Day in OH. But they aren't. The Reuters early voter poll margin of error is 10 points. This is an attempt to provide some positive news for Obamabots.

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(997851)

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Re: Obama Grabs Wide Lead Among Early Voters

Posted by orange blossom special on Sun Oct 14 15:35:37 2012, in response to Obama Grabs Wide Lead Among Early Voters, posted by SMAZ on Sun Oct 14 10:51:12 2012.

fiogf49gjkf0d
How did you get the tally for uncounted and sealed ballots??

I smell a felony!!

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Re: Obama Grabs Wide Lead Among Early Voters

Posted by bingbong on Sun Oct 14 16:29:13 2012, in response to Re: Obama Grabs Wide Lead Among Early Voters, posted by Chris R16/R2730 on Sun Oct 14 13:53:56 2012.

fiogf49gjkf0d
What you're missing is that the result way exceeds that wider than typical MOE.

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(997867)

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Re: Bullshit: Obama Grabs Wide Lead Among Early Voters

Posted by bingbong on Sun Oct 14 16:36:14 2012, in response to Bullshit: Obama Grabs Wide Lead Among Early Voters, posted by Chris R16/R2730 on Sun Oct 14 13:02:33 2012.

fiogf49gjkf0d
These are NOT mailed in absentees. Polls are open in these states, one (provided they are registered and in some cases have ID) can go vote anytime. That's who the survey's about.

Willard's 6 points behind in the latest polls in OH. Willard won't be winning Ohio. The guy's a liar. Liars are losers. Get used to it.

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(997868)

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Re: Bullshit: Obama Grabs Wide Lead Among Early Voters

Posted by Easy on Sun Oct 14 16:46:34 2012, in response to Re: Bullshit: Obama Grabs Wide Lead Among Early Voters, posted by bingbong on Sun Oct 14 16:36:14 2012.

fiogf49gjkf0d
These are NOT mailed in absentees. Polls are open in these states, one (provided they are registered and in some cases have ID) can go vote anytime. That's who the survey's about.

No, it's about both. Reread the article. And I can only imagine that it's mostly about mail-in ballots. How many people would have already gone in early to vote in person? Can't be that many. In fact according to the article the total mumber that have already voted is very small.

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(997871)

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Re: Obama Grabs Wide Lead Among Early Voters

Posted by AlM on Sun Oct 14 17:32:29 2012, in response to Obama Grabs Wide Lead Among Early Voters, posted by SMAZ on Sun Oct 14 10:51:12 2012.

fiogf49gjkf0d
On the other hand, a poll came out yesterday saying that Obama had a 2 point lead in AZ. Just goes to show that all polls need to be taken with many grains of salt.

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(997876)

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Re: Obama Grabs Wide Lead Among Early Voters

Posted by bingbong on Sun Oct 14 17:41:55 2012, in response to Re: Obama Grabs Wide Lead Among Early Voters, posted by AlM on Sun Oct 14 17:32:29 2012.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Duh. That was for real...apparently a lot of Hispanic voters answered the phone that day. Just shows that polling in general is ferschnact. It's all about who answers the phone. The there's those that purposefully lie to the interviewer. Then there's the candidates that purposefully lie to the voters.

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Re: Obama Grabs Wide Lead Among Early Voters

Posted by Italianstallion on Sun Oct 14 18:05:31 2012, in response to Obama Grabs Wide Lead Among Early Voters, posted by SMAZ on Sun Oct 14 10:51:12 2012.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Let's hope they vote early and often. :-)

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(997886)

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Re: Bullshit: Obama Grabs Wide Lead Among Early Voters

Posted by Italianstallion on Sun Oct 14 18:07:41 2012, in response to Bullshit: Obama Grabs Wide Lead Among Early Voters, posted by Chris R16/R2730 on Sun Oct 14 13:02:33 2012.

fiogf49gjkf0d
The numbers add up better than Romney's tax plan.

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(997892)

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Re: Bullshit: Obama Grabs Wide Lead Among Early Voters

Posted by Easy on Sun Oct 14 18:28:13 2012, in response to Re: Bullshit: Obama Grabs Wide Lead Among Early Voters, posted by Italianstallion on Sun Oct 14 18:07:41 2012.

fiogf49gjkf0d
True story!

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(997894)

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Re: Bullshit: Obama Grabs Wide Lead Among Early Voters

Posted by salaamallah@hotmail.com on Sun Oct 14 18:29:59 2012, in response to Re: Bullshit: Obama Grabs Wide Lead Among Early Voters, posted by Easy on Sun Oct 14 18:28:13 2012.

fiogf49gjkf0d
: )

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(997937)

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Re: Bullshit: Obama Grabs Wide Lead Among Early Voters

Posted by bingbong on Sun Oct 14 21:16:15 2012, in response to Re: Bullshit: Obama Grabs Wide Lead Among Early Voters, posted by Italianstallion on Sun Oct 14 18:07:41 2012.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Was just thinking that......

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(997938)

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Re: Obama Grabs Wide Lead Among Early Voters

Posted by Train Dude on Sun Oct 14 21:21:24 2012, in response to Re: Obama Grabs Wide Lead Among Early Voters, posted by AlM on Sun Oct 14 17:32:29 2012.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Duh? apparently bing-bong doesn't think much of your analytical skills. Face it, you might just be a conservative.

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(997943)

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Re: Obama Grabs Wide Lead Among Early Voters

Posted by italianstallion on Sun Oct 14 21:59:12 2012, in response to Re: Obama Grabs Wide Lead Among Early Voters, posted by AlM on Sun Oct 14 17:32:29 2012.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Keep an eye on AZ - it'll be closer that many think (both for Pres and Senator).

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(997951)

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Re: Obama Grabs Wide Lead Among Early Voters

Posted by LuchAAA on Sun Oct 14 23:28:28 2012, in response to Obama Grabs Wide Lead Among Early Voters, posted by SMAZ on Sun Oct 14 10:51:12 2012.

fiogf49gjkf0d
I might vote early. I can go to the county office and vote at the poll like we do on election day. But there's no reason to because the lines are not long at my voting location.

I don't like sending in an absentee ballot.

Election Day should be a federal holiday.

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(997966)

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Re: Obama Grabs Wide Lead Among Early Voters

Posted by SMAZ on Mon Oct 15 01:20:13 2012, in response to Re: Obama Grabs Wide Lead Among Early Voters, posted by LuchAAA on Sun Oct 14 23:28:28 2012.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Election Day should be a federal holiday.

The official Election Day should be on a Sunday like in normal countries.

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(997993)

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Re: Obama Grabs Wide Lead Among Early Voters

Posted by Spider-Pig on Mon Oct 15 05:22:43 2012, in response to Re: Obama Grabs Wide Lead Among Early Voters, posted by SMAZ on Mon Oct 15 01:20:13 2012.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Either it would therefore have to be illegal to have polling places in churches, or it would skew elections rightward.

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Re: Bullshit: Obama Grabs Wide Lead Among Early Voters

Posted by ClearAspect on Mon Oct 15 07:08:53 2012, in response to Bullshit: Obama Grabs Wide Lead Among Early Voters, posted by Chris R16/R2730 on Sun Oct 14 13:02:33 2012.

fiogf49gjkf0d
You sound butthurt ... are you butthurt?

There are creams for that...

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(998005)

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Re: Bullshit: Obama Grabs Wide Lead Among Early Voters

Posted by Train Dude on Mon Oct 15 08:24:25 2012, in response to Re: Bullshit: Obama Grabs Wide Lead Among Early Voters, posted by ClearAspect on Mon Oct 15 07:08:53 2012.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Don't start sounding like the bottom-feeder from glenmont, Chris.

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(2013341)

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Re: Obama Grabs Wide Lead Among Early Voters?

Posted by Olog-hai on Mon Mar 17 05:50:02 2025, in response to Obama Grabs Wide Lead Among Early Voters, posted by SMAZ on Sun Oct 14 10:51:12 2012.

The steal was rampant back then.

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Re: Obama Grabs Wide Lead Among Early Voters

Posted by Chicagomotorman on Mon Mar 17 10:10:57 2025, in response to Re: Obama Grabs Wide Lead Among Early Voters, posted by Italianstallion on Sun Oct 14 18:05:31 2012.

GO TO HELL

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