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(1980490)

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Steve Sailer: why NYC needs a low crime rate

Posted by Peter Rosa on Wed Apr 17 13:18:31 2024

New York City doesn’t have a relatively high crime rate since the Giuliani-Bloomberg-Bratton era, but it needs a really low crime rate because its density and mixture of classes and races (the subway system makes it easy for anybody from public housing projects to hang out in even the richest neighborhoods) makes NYC peculiarly psychologically stressful ....
For example, Cincinnati has a higher crime rate than New York City, but even if a young woman works at the Procter & Gamble headquarters downtown, it’s fairly easy to arrange her life so she doesn’t have to worry about crime all that much. In contrast, if she works at the Colgate-Palmolive headquarters on Park Avenue in Manhattan, she probably worries about the crazymen on the subway and on the sidewalk.


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(1980508)

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Re: Steve Sailer: why NYC needs a low crime rate

Posted by AlM on Wed Apr 17 14:10:51 2024, in response to Steve Sailer: why NYC needs a low crime rate, posted by Peter Rosa on Wed Apr 17 13:18:31 2024.

Meh. He has a point, but:

- In Cincinnati, even the poor (I'll grant that most violent crime is committed by poor people, even though most poor people don't commit violent crimes) have (possibly unreliable) cars.

- Enough minority members are middle class that there are plenty of those dark skinned folks in middle class neighborhoods. So if you're the type who gets nervous every time they see a young black guy in the neighborhood, Cincinnati won't save you from agita.

- The people who live near NYC's downtown business districts tend to be affluent. That's not true of many smaller cities. Criminals tend to do their stuff near their homes even in NYC. Too much work to take the subway into midtown to mug someone. Also too many cops, too many cell phones to report your crime instantly.

- Crazies are everywhere. I don't know about Cincinnati (why did he pick such a hard-to-spell name?) but many smaller cities have crazies too.

- Thanks to the internet, all bizarre crimes get wide attention. NYC has more of those in number (not as a percentage of population). So NYC is always in the news for a bizarre crime. That doesn't mean you're more at risk for them in NYC; in fact, probably less so.

PS. How about cell phones as a cause of reduced street crime? It used to take minutes to find a pay phone to report a crime, maybe more in slum areas.





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(1980536)

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Re: Steve Sailer: why NYC needs a low crime rate

Posted by Peter Rosa on Wed Apr 17 16:52:40 2024, in response to Re: Steve Sailer: why NYC needs a low crime rate, posted by AlM on Wed Apr 17 14:10:51 2024.

That's all true, especially about criminals usually acting close to home. His major point, as I see it, has to do with one's exposure to skells and street-level crime. His hypothetical P&G worker lives in a decent suburb or city neighborhood, drives to work in her Ford Explorer, parks in one of the company's surface lots (or garage if she's high enough in the ranks) with their security patrols, and most likely does not stray far on foot from the offices during the workday.

Ohio is no Texas, but given its political orientation it's sure to be much harder on crime than New York. And Melissa Powers, the DA for Hamilton County (Cincinnati) is a VAST improvement over the loathsome Amazing Alvin.

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(1980537)

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Re: Steve Sailer: why NYC needs a low crime rate

Posted by Kevin from Midwood on Wed Apr 17 17:05:10 2024, in response to Re: Steve Sailer: why NYC needs a low crime rate, posted by AlM on Wed Apr 17 14:10:51 2024.

The people who live near NYC's downtown business districts tend to be affluent. That's not true of many smaller cities. Criminals tend to do their stuff near their homes even in NYC. Too much work to take the subway into midtown to mug someone. Also too many cops, too many cell phones to report your crime instantly.

It seems to me that it's not uncommon for pickpockets, purse snatchers, scammers and the like to travel to crowded areas, e.g. the Rome Metro or the French Quarter. The NYC crime heatmap gets quite red in Midtown.

Thanks to the internet, all bizarre crimes get wide attention. NYC has more of those in number (not as a percentage of population). So NYC is always in the news for a bizarre crime. That doesn't mean you're more at risk for them in NYC; in fact, probably less so.

So much media attention (even pre-internet) that you can just rattle off the names: Kitty Genovese, Etan Patz, Kendra Webdale, Daniel Enriquez, Ryan Carson. What really matters here are the best available statistics.

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