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| Natural Immunity Leads to Greater Omicron Risk (1867691) | |
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| (1867691) | |
Natural Immunity Leads to Greater Omicron Risk |
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Posted by Stephen Bauman on Fri Dec 3 19:44:15 2021 Here's a link to a non-peer reviewed epidemiological study out of South Africa that compared the rates of primary and breakthrough infections for the Beta, Delta and Omicron variants.https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.11.11.21266068v2.full.pdf The primary infection rate was for people who had not previously had Covid. The breakthrough rates were for people who and recovered from Covid and got breakthrough infections for either the Beta, Delta, or Omicron variants. These breakthrough rates were for "naturally" acquired immunity - not through vaccines. The results showed the breakthrough rates for the Beta and Delta variants were around 70% than for primary infections. The startling result is that breakthrough rate for the Omicron variant is 2.39 times greater for those who had never caught Covid. Here is the first section of the report. Abstract Objective: To examine whether SARS-CoV-2 reinfection risk has changed through time in South Africa, in the context of the emergence of the Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants Design: Retrospective analysis of routine epidemiological surveillance data Setting: Line list data on SARS-CoV-2 with specimen receipt dates between 04 March 2020 and 27 November 2021, collected through South Africa’s National Notifiable Medical Conditions Surveillance System Participants 2,796,982 individuals with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 who had a positive test result at least 90 days prior to 27 November 2021. Individuals having sequential positive tests at least 90 days apart were considered to have suspected reinfections. Main outcome measures: Incidence of suspected reinfections through time; comparison of reinfection rates to the expectation under a null model (approach 1); empirical estimates of the time-varying hazards of infection and reinfection throughout the epidemic (approach 2) Results: 35,670 suspected reinfections were identified among 2,796,982 individuals with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 who had a positive test result at least 90 days prior to 27 November 2021. The number of reinfections observed through the end of the third wave was consistent with the null model of no change in reinfection risk (approach 1). Although increases in the hazard of primary infection were observed following the introduction of both the Beta and Delta variants, no corresponding increase was observed in the reinfection hazard (approach 2). Contrary to expectation, the estimated hazard ratio for reinfection infection was lower during waves driven by the Beta and Delta variants than for the first wave (relative hazard ratio for wave 2 versus wave 1: 0.75 (CI95: 0.59–0.97); for wave 3 versus wave 1: 0.71 (CI95: 0.56–0.92)). In contrast, the recent spread of the Omicron variant has been associated with a decrease in the hazard coefficient for primary infection and an increase in reinfection hazard coefficient. The estimated hazard ratio for reinfection versus primary infection for the period from 1 November 2021 to 27 November 2021 versus wave 1 was 2.39 (CI95: 1.88–3.11).versus primary Conclusion: Population-level evidence suggests that the Omicron variant is associated with substantial ability to evade immunity from prior infection. In contrast, there is no population-wide epidemiological evidence of immune escape associated with the Beta or Delta variants. This finding has important implications for public health planning, particularly in countries like South Africa with high rates of immunity from prior infection. Urgent questions remain regarding whether Omicron is also able to evade vaccine-induced immunity and the potential implications of reduced immunity to infection on protection against severe disease and death. |
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Re: Natural Immunity Leads to Greater Omicron Risk |
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Posted by Easy on Fri Dec 3 19:45:23 2021, in response to Natural Immunity Leads to Greater Omicron Risk, posted by Stephen Bauman on Fri Dec 3 19:44:15 2021. Of course it does. |
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Re: Natural Immunity Leads to Greater Omicron Risk? |
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Posted by Olog-hai on Fri Dec 3 19:56:29 2021, in response to Natural Immunity Leads to Greater Omicron Risk, posted by Stephen Bauman on Fri Dec 3 19:44:15 2021. Talk about a premise that makes no sense whatsoever. |
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Re: Natural Immunity Leads to Greater Omicron Risk? |
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Posted by Stephen Bauman on Fri Dec 3 20:11:37 2021, in response to Re: Natural Immunity Leads to Greater Omicron Risk?, posted by Olog-hai on Fri Dec 3 19:56:29 2021. Talk about a premise that makes no sense whatsoever.It's what the data is showing. |
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Re: Natural Immunity Leads to Greater Omicron Risk? |
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Posted by Dave on Fri Dec 3 21:42:28 2021, in response to Re: Natural Immunity Leads to Greater Omicron Risk?, posted by Olog-hai on Fri Dec 3 19:56:29 2021. What doesn't make sense? |
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Re: Natural Immunity Leads to Greater Omicron Risk? |
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Posted by Easy on Fri Dec 3 21:44:23 2021, in response to Re: Natural Immunity Leads to Greater Omicron Risk?, posted by Dave on Fri Dec 3 21:42:28 2021. Well it makes big pharma dollars so of course it makes cents! |
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| (1867713) | |
Re: Natural Immunity Leads to Greater Omicron Risk? |
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Posted by Dave on Fri Dec 3 22:03:32 2021, in response to Re: Natural Immunity Leads to Greater Omicron Risk?, posted by Easy on Fri Dec 3 21:44:23 2021. Rim shot! |
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Re: Natural Immunity Leads to Greater Omicron Risk? |
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Posted by Olog-hai on Fri Dec 3 22:16:20 2021, in response to Re: Natural Immunity Leads to Greater Omicron Risk?, posted by Dave on Fri Dec 3 21:42:28 2021. If you're immune, how could you be at risk? Is this Bizarro World? |
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Re: Natural Immunity Leads to Greater Omicron Risk |
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Posted by Dyre Dan on Sat Dec 4 02:31:36 2021, in response to Natural Immunity Leads to Greater Omicron Risk, posted by Stephen Bauman on Fri Dec 3 19:44:15 2021. How reliable is infection-rate data from South Africa? That is, I'm wondering what percentage of total COVID cases in South Africa really get reported, compared to the percentages in the U.S. or Europe? |
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Re: Natural Immunity Leads to Greater Omicron Risk |
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Posted by Fred G on Sat Dec 4 06:16:58 2021, in response to Re: Natural Immunity Leads to Greater Omicron Risk, posted by Dyre Dan on Sat Dec 4 02:31:36 2021. Not sure what you know about South Africa but I don’t know why they couldn’t keep track of a pandemic like any other place. They’re probably doing a better job than Florida |
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Re: Natural Immunity Leads to Greater Omicron Risk? |
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Posted by Dave on Sat Dec 4 06:56:16 2021, in response to Re: Natural Immunity Leads to Greater Omicron Risk?, posted by Olog-hai on Fri Dec 3 22:16:20 2021. Ah, now I see what you were saying. Good point! |
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Re: Natural Immunity Leads to Greater Omicron Risk? |
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Posted by mtk52983 on Sat Dec 4 07:30:47 2021, in response to Re: Natural Immunity Leads to Greater Omicron Risk?, posted by Dave on Sat Dec 4 06:56:16 2021. Maybe Natural Immunity should be in scare quotes |
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Re: Natural Immunity Leads to Greater Omicron Risk? |
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Posted by Stephen Bauman on Sat Dec 4 07:41:16 2021, in response to Re: Natural Immunity Leads to Greater Omicron Risk?, posted by Olog-hai on Fri Dec 3 22:16:20 2021. If you're immune, how could you be at risk?The data is showing that a previous Covid infection does not provide immunity against the Omicron variant. 1. those previously infected with Covid falsely believe they are immune and take no precautions to prevent its spread. 2. those who have not been infected with Covid take precautions to prevent its spread. 3. the result will be the Omicron variant will spread more rapidly among those who had previously been infected with another variant. We are still waiting for in vitro studies to determine to what extent the antibodies, B-Cells, T-Cells acquired from a previous Covid infection recognize the Omicron variant. The South African epidemiological data indicates the efficacy of a previous infection isn't sufficient. |
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Re: Natural Immunity Leads to Greater Omicron Risk? |
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Posted by Stephen Bauman on Sat Dec 4 07:41:17 2021, in response to Re: Natural Immunity Leads to Greater Omicron Risk?, posted by Olog-hai on Fri Dec 3 22:16:20 2021. If you're immune, how could you be at risk?The data is showing that a previous Covid infection does not provide immunity against the Omicron variant. 1. those previously infected with Covid falsely believe they are immune and take no precautions to prevent its spread. 2. those who have not been infected with Covid take precautions to prevent its spread. 3. the result will be the Omicron variant will spread more rapidly among those who had previously been infected with another variant. We are still waiting for in vitro studies to determine to what extent the antibodies, B-Cells, T-Cells acquired from a previous Covid infection recognize the Omicron variant. The South African epidemiological data indicates the efficacy of a previous infection isn't sufficient. |
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Re: Natural Immunity Leads to Greater Omicron Risk? |
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Posted by Train Dude on Sat Dec 4 09:29:57 2021, in response to Re: Natural Immunity Leads to Greater Omicron Risk?, posted by Stephen Bauman on Sat Dec 4 07:41:16 2021. Which fowchee rules are these and which did they supercede? |
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Re: Natural Immunity Leads to Greater Omicron Risk |
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Posted by Jeff Rosen on Sat Dec 4 09:41:02 2021, in response to Natural Immunity Leads to Greater Omicron Risk, posted by Stephen Bauman on Fri Dec 3 19:44:15 2021. You need to get laid. |
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Re: Natural Immunity Leads to Greater Omicron Risk? |
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Posted by chicagoMotorman on Sat Dec 4 10:56:21 2021, in response to Re: Natural Immunity Leads to Greater Omicron Risk?, posted by Dave on Sat Dec 4 06:56:16 2021. Of course it does. |
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Re: Natural Immunity Leads to Greater Omicron Risk |
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Posted by chicagoMotorman on Sat Dec 4 10:58:40 2021, in response to Natural Immunity Leads to Greater Omicron Risk, posted by Stephen Bauman on Fri Dec 3 19:44:15 2021. |
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Re: Natural Immunity Leads to Greater Omicron Risk |
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Posted by Stephen Bauman on Sat Dec 4 12:28:14 2021, in response to Re: Natural Immunity Leads to Greater Omicron Risk, posted by chicagoMotorman on Sat Dec 4 10:58:40 2021. This snippet has nothing to do with whether or not prior Covid infection provides immunity for the Omicron variant.Mr. Ateba's argument against the selective incoming travel ban from 8 Southern African countries would be more persuasive, if his facts were correct. In particular, at 1:40 and 4:30 Mr. Ateba stated that Namibia had a total of only 400 Covid cases since the pandemic began. A simple check at any of the many websites that have been tracking the pandemic's progress would have shown this to be an extreme undercount. The WHO website, https://covid19.who.int/, a source that Mr. Ateba quoted to support his argument, states that Namibia has experienced confirmed 129,160 cases. |
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Re: Natural Immunity Leads to Greater Omicron Risk |
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Posted by 3-9 on Sun Dec 5 06:34:36 2021, in response to Re: Natural Immunity Leads to Greater Omicron Risk, posted by Fred G on Sat Dec 4 06:16:58 2021. You don't consider burying your head in the sand an effective management technique? :-) |
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Re: Natural Immunity Leads to Greater Omicron Risk |
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Posted by Fred G on Sun Dec 5 09:05:01 2021, in response to Re: Natural Immunity Leads to Greater Omicron Risk, posted by 3-9 on Sun Dec 5 06:34:36 2021. There’s enough sand in Florida so I guess that’s sound management there |
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Re: Natural Immunity Leads to Greater Omicron Risk |
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Posted by Jeff Rosen on Sun Dec 5 10:59:29 2021, in response to Re: Natural Immunity Leads to Greater Omicron Risk, posted by Fred G on Sun Dec 5 09:05:01 2021. DeSantis in 2024. Maybe we could get back to normalcy. |
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Re: Natural Immunity Leads to Greater Omicron Risk |
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Posted by Spider-Pig on Sun Dec 5 11:30:56 2021, in response to Re: Natural Immunity Leads to Greater Omicron Risk, posted by Jeff Rosen on Sun Dec 5 10:59:29 2021. Just so long as it’s not Traitor. |
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Re: Natural Immunity Leads to Greater Omicron Risk? |
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Posted by Olog-hai on Wed Aug 5 13:02:37 2026, in response to Re: Natural Immunity Leads to Greater Omicron Risk?, posted by Olog-hai on Fri Dec 3 22:16:20 2021. Never got a straight answer to that one. |
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