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| Covid cases are up (1779561) | |
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| (1779561) | |
Covid cases are up |
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Posted by TransitChuckG on Sat Oct 24 10:22:14 2020 Covid |
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Re: Covid cases are up |
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Posted by ntrainride on Sat Oct 24 12:01:33 2020, in response to Covid cases are up, posted by TransitChuckG on Sat Oct 24 10:22:14 2020. so are suicides. and murders.saying "rates are up" is about as prescient as saying "that wave rolling up the sand will hit my toes in 2.7 seconds." |
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Re: Covid cases are up? |
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Posted by Olog-hai on Sat Oct 24 12:45:27 2020, in response to Covid cases are up, posted by TransitChuckG on Sat Oct 24 10:22:14 2020. Why yes, because testing is up. Let me know when deaths from the actual disease (and not co-morbidities) are up. |
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Re: Covid cases are up |
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Posted by Mtk52983 on Sat Oct 24 12:52:42 2020, in response to Re: Covid cases are up?, posted by Olog-hai on Sat Oct 24 12:45:27 2020. If the comorbidity would not have killed the person then had the person not contracted Covid, then the death is properly labeled Covid. |
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Re: Covid cases are up |
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Posted by Stephen Bauman on Sat Oct 24 13:04:09 2020, in response to Covid cases are up, posted by TransitChuckG on Sat Oct 24 10:22:14 2020. This has been building for some time.Here's a link showing how bad various parts of the country are. There has been very little impetus to contain the infection rate. I'd expect it to continue at its exponential rate. Possibly, this will trigger a national lockdown, in about a week's time. :=) One of the actions that has accelerated this growth, has been the change in CDC policy regarding an isolation period for those entering this country. The policy had recommended everyone in this category to self isolate for 14 days. This recommendation was eliminated on Aug 23rd. This meant that the pool of infected people within the US was being constantly replenished. Several states are actively encouraging its spread: Idaho; Iowa; North Dakota; South Dakota. Here's a list of mask mandates by state. |
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Re: Covid cases are up |
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Posted by Stephen Bauman on Sat Oct 24 13:17:07 2020, in response to Re: Covid cases are up, posted by ntrainride on Sat Oct 24 12:01:33 2020. so are suicides. and murdersThere were 48K suicides in the US last year. 20K homicides There have been 230K Covid deaths in the US. Stop trivializing the major health problem of the past 100 years. |
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Re: Covid cases are up |
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Posted by BILLBKLYN on Sat Oct 24 13:20:00 2020, in response to Re: Covid cases are up, posted by Stephen Bauman on Sat Oct 24 13:17:07 2020. Stephen, don't you get it? It is what it is! What are we gonna do, hide for the rest of our lives? |
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Re: Covid cases are up |
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Posted by AlM on Sat Oct 24 13:21:11 2020, in response to Re: Covid cases are up, posted by Stephen Bauman on Sat Oct 24 13:04:09 2020. Possibly, this will trigger a national lockdown, in about a week's time.Depends what you mean by lockdown. I can't imagine anything really severe (like closing stores that don't sell essential goods) occurring, no matter what. |
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Re: Covid cases are up |
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Posted by AlM on Sat Oct 24 13:25:19 2020, in response to Re: Covid cases are up, posted by BILLBKLYN on Sat Oct 24 13:20:00 2020. What are we gonna do, hide for the rest of our lives?Nope. Just be cautious. I've encountered over 20,000 people on the streets since March. Every single minute of that time I have worn an N-95 mask. I have not eaten a meal inside a restaurant, though I have had plenty of take-out. I do go into stores that require everyone entering to wear a mask, and enforce it. |
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Re: Covid cases are up |
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Posted by TransitChuckG on Sat Oct 24 14:08:32 2020, in response to Re: Covid cases are up, posted by AlM on Sat Oct 24 13:21:11 2020. Safe program |
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Re: Covid cases are up |
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Posted by BILLBKLYN on Sat Oct 24 14:13:28 2020, in response to Re: Covid cases are up, posted by AlM on Sat Oct 24 13:25:19 2020. I'm out every single day from 5-7 hrs. Never wear a mask outdoors, eat in restaurants, both indoor and outdoor, drank in bars, outdoors, wear a mask when inside stores. |
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Re: Covid cases are up? |
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Posted by Olog-hai on Sat Oct 24 14:47:27 2020, in response to Re: Covid cases are up, posted by Mtk52983 on Sat Oct 24 12:52:42 2020. Total baloney. Except in the case of those nursing home deaths. |
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Re: Covid cases are up |
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Posted by AlM on Sat Oct 24 15:35:44 2020, in response to Re: Covid cases are up, posted by BILLBKLYN on Sat Oct 24 14:13:28 2020. OK. Just because you're less careful than me doesn't mean that caution is wrong. And you are more careful than many Americans.And indoor NYC bars and restaurants are at 25% capacity. Parts of the country allow 100% capacity. |
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Re: Covid cases are up |
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Posted by mtk52983 on Sat Oct 24 16:30:34 2020, in response to Re: Covid cases are up?, posted by Olog-hai on Sat Oct 24 14:47:27 2020. They had comorbidities so under your logic those don't count as Covid deaths. You can't have it both ways. For the record, I believe that any death that would not have happened at that point but for the person contracting Covid is a Covid death so that includes the nursing homes. |
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Re: Covid cases are up |
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Posted by AlM on Sat Oct 24 16:38:31 2020, in response to Re: Covid cases are up, posted by mtk52983 on Sat Oct 24 16:30:34 2020. The best actual estimate of covid deaths is excess deaths. How many people died the last few Aprils, vs. April 2020, and so on.And obviously that's not a perfect measure either, but it does show that recorded covid deaths are not an overstatement. |
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Re: Covid cases are up |
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Posted by mtk52983 on Sat Oct 24 16:54:52 2020, in response to Re: Covid cases are up, posted by AlM on Sat Oct 24 16:38:31 2020. That method tends to overestimate deaths due to Covid. A lot of people were avoiding hospitals as much as possible so might have lived if they had gone sooner but ended up passing away not ever having Covid. Also, when you see jobs being cut you do see greater numbers of suicides, accidental drug overdoses, etc. as people self-medicate. |
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Re: Covid cases are up |
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Posted by AlM on Sat Oct 24 17:02:37 2020, in response to Re: Covid cases are up, posted by mtk52983 on Sat Oct 24 16:54:52 2020. That method tends to overestimate deaths due to Covid.Quite possibly. Remember though that accidental deaths were down. This method isn't very accurate but it does provide evidence that that the official count isn't a major overcount, and is probably a bit of an undercount. |
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Re: Covid cases are up |
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Posted by Jeff Rosen on Sat Oct 24 19:13:10 2020, in response to Re: Covid cases are up, posted by AlM on Sat Oct 24 15:35:44 2020. You're not going to get covid outside without a mask unless you're talking to someone "with the disease" for an extended period and close to them. Indoors is a different story and I always wear a mask indoors, however with NY at under 1% infected, that's less than 1 person out of 100 that can give it to you indoors without a mask. |
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Re: Covid cases are up |
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Posted by BILLBKLYN on Sat Oct 24 19:22:27 2020, in response to Re: Covid cases are up, posted by AlM on Sat Oct 24 15:35:44 2020. Well, if I get the "wink and nod", the mask comes off indoors as well. |
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Re: Covid cases are up |
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Posted by AlM on Sat Oct 24 19:24:54 2020, in response to Re: Covid cases are up, posted by Jeff Rosen on Sat Oct 24 19:13:10 2020. You're not going to get covid outside without a mask unless you're talking to someone "with the disease" for an extended period and close to them.How do you know? I agree it's very unlikely for any given encounter. But I encounter a dozen or so people on every block. One in a thousand of those people might be a superspreader. How did the president of Notre Dame get covid at the White House? Last I heard he never went indoors. Did he have some deep and lengthy conversation outdoors with Melania? |
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Re: Covid cases are up |
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Posted by Stephen Bauman on Sat Oct 24 20:53:16 2020, in response to Re: Covid cases are up, posted by Jeff Rosen on Sat Oct 24 19:13:10 2020. that's less than 1 person out of 100 that can give it to you indoors without a mask.The aerosol can remain suspended in the air for 9 hours. One can get infected with 15 minutes exposure, even if those 15 minutes are not consecutive. Suppose 100 people were in that room during a 9 hour period. The probability of at least one infected person is 63% (1 - 0.99^100). It's a reasonable assumption that Covid is present in every indoor venue that's open to the general public. |
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Re: Covid cases are up |
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Posted by gp38/r42 chris on Sat Oct 24 20:58:05 2020, in response to Re: Covid cases are up, posted by AlM on Sat Oct 24 13:25:19 2020. I wear mask in stores but it instantly comes off when I'm out of the store in parking lot.Ive eaten outdoor dining at least 2x a week since ny allowed it, which shifted to indoor at least 2x week since may or June when it opened inside. Been to stores about as much as pre-covid. Don't wear a mask outside unless in line somewhere or are stationary around other people. My son has been in school 5 days a week (thankfully) since beginning of September, and is doing great. They have to wear masks on the school bus, and in class. |
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Re: Covid cases are up |
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Posted by Stephen Bauman on Sat Oct 24 20:58:32 2020, in response to Re: Covid cases are up, posted by Jeff Rosen on Sat Oct 24 19:13:10 2020. You're not going to get covid outside without a mask unless you're talking to someone "with the disease" for an extended period and close to them.There are two mechanisms working against outdoor transmission. The first is dispersion. The second is ultraviolet light. I'd hedge my bets at night. |
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