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How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19

Posted by Stephen Bauman on Sun Aug 9 10:14:40 2020

From the New England Journal of Medicine.

Successful Elimination of Covid-19 Transmission in New Zealand.

7 weeks of national lockdown, including 2 weeks after last community spread case was detected.

strict quarantine for all entering New Zealand.

no community spread cases for 100 days.

economy near normal

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Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19

Posted by AlM on Sun Aug 9 11:25:35 2020, in response to How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19, posted by Stephen Bauman on Sun Aug 9 10:14:40 2020.

strict quarantine for all entering New Zealand.

There are tens of millions of people who have the right to enter the United States any time they want, namely people with US citizenship and residency or work permit in a foreign country, or foreign citizens with residency or a work permit in the US.

Yes, the US could have actually tried to enforce a quarantine on those people when they entered the country, and tens of thousands of deaths are due to the failure to do so. But there is no way we could have gotten NZ style results.



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Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19

Posted by Stephen Bauman on Sun Aug 9 11:49:03 2020, in response to Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19, posted by AlM on Sun Aug 9 11:25:35 2020.

the US could have actually tried to enforce a quarantine on those people when they entered the country,...

It's the only strategy, in the absence of testing, effective treatment or vaccine.

Internal, community spreading can be stopped by a rigorous lock down. It took 7 weeks to guarantee that internal spreading stopped. 5 weeks until no internal cases were reported, plus 2 weeks to account for any asymptomatic cases still lurking. It nearly did in the US but we did not follow the course.

That meant a continued Covid free environment could be obtained only by preventing Covid's re-introduction.

Strict quarantine for all incoming people is the only way to handle this.

We already have something like this internally in the US. Some states require quarantining for people entering from other states regardless of residency. Until a few days ago, a round trip to from NYC to Florida required 14 days quarantine on entering Florida and 14 days quarantine on the return.

It's draconian, but it's the only viable solution a the present time. The US response is to keep the numbers manageable until a treatment or effective vaccine is found.

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Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19

Posted by Orange Blossom Special on Sun Aug 9 11:50:53 2020, in response to Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19, posted by AlM on Sun Aug 9 11:25:35 2020.

They still allow typoid mary to fly around after Cruise Ship style issues. This was supposed to be banned finally in either late June or July.

They let typoid mary fly in an aeroplane in Australia from a plague ship. They raided the offices and charged those responsible with manslaughter.
I don't see Deblassio, Cuomo, Fauci, or any governor, czar, or anyone else have this treatment.


It can be done in reality. Those citizens are offshore and I think they don't get the same level of constitutional protections coming home. Unless I'm remembering something else.

We're just incompetant as a nation. Deep State doesn't require much thought to have a job. Just anger.

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Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19?

Posted by Olog-hai on Sun Aug 9 12:19:16 2020, in response to How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19, posted by Stephen Bauman on Sun Aug 9 10:14:40 2020.

Fake news.

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Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19?

Posted by AlM on Sun Aug 9 12:59:55 2020, in response to Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19?, posted by Olog-hai on Sun Aug 9 12:19:16 2020.

Hmm.

1. NZ still has lots of covid cases?

2. NZ never had any covid cases?

Let us know which it is.



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Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19?

Posted by Stephen Bauman on Sun Aug 9 13:19:43 2020, in response to Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19?, posted by Olog-hai on Sun Aug 9 12:19:16 2020.

It was a difficult task. The "Fake news" attitude is one reason the US will probably hit 300,000 Covid deaths before 2021.

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Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19?

Posted by Olog-hai on Sun Aug 9 13:31:04 2020, in response to Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19?, posted by Olog-hai on Sun Aug 9 12:19:16 2020.

Too bad nobody replied. Ardern's almost like New Zealand's Kim Jong-un, certainly in spirit.

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Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19?

Posted by JayZeeBMT on Sun Aug 9 13:37:00 2020, in response to Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19?, posted by Stephen Bauman on Sun Aug 9 13:19:43 2020.

The US is on track to hit 300K deaths before Thanksgiving.

Because 'Murica.

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Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19?

Posted by Easy on Sun Aug 9 14:09:55 2020, in response to Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19?, posted by JayZeeBMT on Sun Aug 9 13:37:00 2020.

15% of all US covid deaths have been in NYC.

Because 'Murica.

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Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19

Posted by Easy on Sun Aug 9 14:26:19 2020, in response to Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19, posted by AlM on Sun Aug 9 11:25:35 2020.

Heads would have exploded had it even been attempted. People were already incensed about the very limited travel bans.

I don't think that we have the power on the federal level to tell everyone to stay home and shut down everything. China, North Korea, and New Zealand can do that.

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Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19?

Posted by Train Dude on Sun Aug 9 14:29:02 2020, in response to Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19?, posted by JayZeeBMT on Sun Aug 9 13:37:00 2020.

Lots for you to celebrate, you hateful ghoul.

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Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19?

Posted by AlM on Sun Aug 9 14:31:40 2020, in response to Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19?, posted by Easy on Sun Aug 9 14:09:55 2020.

15% of all US covid deaths have been in NYC.

But this won't stay true for long.

NYC suffered from people not knowing to stay away from grandma, from dumb guidance on masks, from reliance on the subways, and from hospitals not knowing the treatments that are known now.



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Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19

Posted by AlM on Sun Aug 9 14:32:57 2020, in response to Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19, posted by Easy on Sun Aug 9 14:26:19 2020.

I don't think that we have the power on the federal level to tell everyone to stay home and shut down everything.

We had the power to impose a 2-week quarantine on everyone (including Americans) entering from overseas. The power was not used.



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Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19?

Posted by AlM on Sun Aug 9 14:33:57 2020, in response to Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19?, posted by Olog-hai on Sun Aug 9 13:31:04 2020.

Too bad nobody replied.

Your chopped liver factory is working overtime.



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Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19

Posted by Easy on Sun Aug 9 14:35:05 2020, in response to Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19, posted by AlM on Sun Aug 9 14:32:57 2020.

That would have worked for two weeks. Then what?

The real failure of our current (and flawed) system was the 3-week delay in getting the testing kits. The CDC really dropped the ball.

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Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19?

Posted by Train Dude on Sun Aug 9 14:35:24 2020, in response to Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19?, posted by AlM on Sun Aug 9 14:31:40 2020.

Of course you did not mention that little mario forced covid-19 infected patients into nursing homes (where the most susceptible victims were) instead of the 3000 beds that were built to treat Covid patients but remained unused.

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Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19

Posted by AlM on Sun Aug 9 14:54:56 2020, in response to Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19, posted by Easy on Sun Aug 9 14:35:05 2020.

That would have worked for two weeks. Then what?

Keep on doing it, from mid-February through the present.

It wouldn't have prevented covid, but it would have meant far fewer active spreaders. They guy coming back from Italy to New Rochelle wouldn't have spread it to half his synagogue, but only to his family.



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Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19?

Posted by pragmatist on Sun Aug 9 15:33:32 2020, in response to Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19?, posted by Train Dude on Sun Aug 9 14:35:24 2020.

Only partially true, since most of the surge beds, such as the 1000 at the Javits or on the ship were originally designated to take transfers from regular hospitals so they could be used for the covid patients. Only towards the very end did they accept covid patients directly.

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Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19

Posted by BILLBKLYN on Sun Aug 9 15:35:40 2020, in response to How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19, posted by Stephen Bauman on Sun Aug 9 10:14:40 2020.

The only problem is... they're not the United States of America. Are they a democratic republic with guaranteed fredoms? This is the chink in the armor.

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Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19

Posted by gp38/r42 chris on Sun Aug 9 15:38:47 2020, in response to Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19, posted by BILLBKLYN on Sun Aug 9 15:35:40 2020.

That doesn't seem to rezonate with those that prefer socialism. While the Democrats are trying their hardest to make this a socialist country, as of yet it is not.

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Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19

Posted by BILLBKLYN on Sun Aug 9 15:39:34 2020, in response to Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19, posted by Stephen Bauman on Sun Aug 9 11:49:03 2020.

Everyone should get exposed to it. Then, we take whatever measures from there.

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Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19?

Posted by AlM on Sun Aug 9 15:50:52 2020, in response to Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19?, posted by pragmatist on Sun Aug 9 15:33:32 2020.

Also, nursing home residents caught covid from the staff, not from the patients brought in. And the staff didn't catch it from the patients brought in, they caught it from the community. This has been amply documented in links Stephen has posted.



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Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19

Posted by AlM on Sun Aug 9 15:52:59 2020, in response to Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19, posted by BILLBKLYN on Sun Aug 9 15:35:40 2020.

Are they a democratic republic with guaranteed fredoms?

As a matter of fact, they are. The difference between NZ and the US is size rather than guarantees of freedom. The lack of a Second Amendment in NZ did not make it easier to control covid, but population size did.



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Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19

Posted by AlM on Sun Aug 9 15:53:46 2020, in response to Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19, posted by BILLBKLYN on Sun Aug 9 15:39:34 2020.

Disgusting post.

Condemning a million people to death and 2 million plus to lifetime disability.



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Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19

Posted by gp38/r42 chris on Sun Aug 9 15:54:38 2020, in response to Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19, posted by AlM on Sun Aug 9 15:52:59 2020.

Yes. Size too. Which many forget.

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Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19?

Posted by Spider-Pig on Sun Aug 9 16:14:31 2020, in response to Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19?, posted by AlM on Sun Aug 9 15:50:52 2020.

Of course, the right will just cry “fake news.”

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Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19

Posted by Spider-Pig on Sun Aug 9 16:16:10 2020, in response to Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19, posted by BILLBKLYN on Sun Aug 9 15:35:40 2020.

They’re a democratic constitutional monarchy with guaranteed freedoms.

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Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19?

Posted by Orange Blossom Special on Sun Aug 9 16:20:56 2020, in response to Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19?, posted by AlM on Sun Aug 9 12:59:55 2020.

Everyone ignores China. I feel that there is an unconscious racism in that people ignore China.
Myabe no one can copy them, but, they have open malls, restaurants, and society is normal. Gotta give some credit.

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Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19?

Posted by AlM on Sun Aug 9 16:22:02 2020, in response to Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19?, posted by Orange Blossom Special on Sun Aug 9 16:20:56 2020.

Deflecting from your false post.



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Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19

Posted by Spider-Pig on Sun Aug 9 16:24:57 2020, in response to Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19, posted by AlM on Sun Aug 9 15:53:46 2020.

Shoot ’em all and let God sort of ’em out!

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Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19

Posted by Spider-Pig on Sun Aug 9 16:25:26 2020, in response to Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19, posted by Spider-Pig on Sun Aug 9 16:24:57 2020.

God damn autocorrect stuck in a superfluous “of.”

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Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19?

Posted by pragmatist on Sun Aug 9 16:25:41 2020, in response to Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19?, posted by AlM on Sun Aug 9 15:50:52 2020.

The percentage of deaths in NY nursing homes is not higher than other states. But the numbers in the early part of this in NY were horrible in all categories, and very high. Looking back, knowing what we know now, some things should have been done differently. However, it is reasonable to make judgements on the best information available at a point in time, hindsight is 20/20. Even today, when the tables are turned, and NY is far better than most of the country, the percentage of fatalities in that population is still significant. But the beginning of the scourge, nobody knew what to do, or had any real "best practices" for treatments. The numbers of fatalities relative to hospitalizations is much better everywhere, NY included. But we were hit so hard early on, that despite how much better we are doing compared to much of the country, the death numbers might not catch up. But the case counts certainly have, as other states forge ahead of NY. Happily, less are dying everywhere.

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Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19?

Posted by Olog-hai on Sun Aug 9 16:27:17 2020, in response to Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19?, posted by Orange Blossom Special on Sun Aug 9 16:20:56 2020.

Lol "society is normal". Tell that to any religious group there.

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Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19?

Posted by Train Dude on Sun Aug 9 16:29:42 2020, in response to Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19?, posted by AlM on Sun Aug 9 15:50:52 2020.

Bullshit

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Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19

Posted by BILLBKLYN on Sun Aug 9 16:44:37 2020, in response to Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19, posted by AlM on Sun Aug 9 15:53:46 2020.

The needs of the many...

But, I'm not even saying this to get a rise out of people. I'm going at this by Nature's angle. Should Society be crippled, people lose their livelihoods, homes, etc... because of Government mandates?

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Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19

Posted by BILLBKLYN on Sun Aug 9 16:46:01 2020, in response to Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19, posted by Spider-Pig on Sun Aug 9 16:24:57 2020.

Hooyah !!

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Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19

Posted by BILLBKLYN on Sun Aug 9 16:47:38 2020, in response to Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19, posted by AlM on Sun Aug 9 15:52:59 2020.

What does the 2A have to do with this?

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Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19

Posted by BILLBKLYN on Sun Aug 9 16:48:31 2020, in response to Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19, posted by Spider-Pig on Sun Aug 9 16:16:10 2020.

Well, if those Kiwis wanna stay in for 7 weeks,it's up to them

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Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19

Posted by Train Dude on Sun Aug 9 16:52:12 2020, in response to How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19, posted by Stephen Bauman on Sun Aug 9 10:14:40 2020.

New Zealand in size and population is equivalent to the state of Oregon. Your comparison to the United States is ridiculous but expected

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Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19

Posted by AlM on Sun Aug 9 16:58:25 2020, in response to Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19, posted by BILLBKLYN on Sun Aug 9 16:44:37 2020.

Should Society be crippled, people lose their livelihoods, homes, etc... because of Government mandates?

People are risk averse. If you just let covid take its course, the economy will be screwed for even longer because many people won't participate any more than they have to.

Do the math. Death rate of 1/2%. 1,000 deaths per day. 200 million cases to get to herd immunity. That's 1,000 days before most people will feel OK about going to sporting events, theaters, or indoor restaurants.



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Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19

Posted by AlM on Sun Aug 9 17:00:10 2020, in response to Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19, posted by BILLBKLYN on Sun Aug 9 16:47:38 2020.

You said that NZ doesn't have the guaranteed freedoms the US has. Well, that's exactly the one freedom people in NZ don't have that people in the US do have. So that must be what you were referring to.




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Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19

Posted by BILLBKLYN on Sun Aug 9 17:00:58 2020, in response to Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19, posted by AlM on Sun Aug 9 16:58:25 2020.

I would go to all of those things today if I could. I'm not living my life in fear.

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Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19

Posted by Jeff Rosen on Sun Aug 9 17:04:15 2020, in response to Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19, posted by BILLBKLYN on Sun Aug 9 17:00:58 2020.

It's thinking like that which will keep covid with us for years.

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Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19

Posted by pragmatist on Sun Aug 9 17:05:57 2020, in response to Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19, posted by AlM on Sun Aug 9 16:58:25 2020.

Except that we don't know for sure that herd immunity will apply. Best guess is that it will to a point, but if it doesn't, and reinfection after a relatively short lived immunity proves to be the case, trying to achieve it will be one of the greatest human tragedies of all time.

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Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19

Posted by JayZeeBMT on Sun Aug 9 17:11:30 2020, in response to Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19, posted by Jeff Rosen on Sun Aug 9 17:04:15 2020.

Agreed!

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Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19

Posted by AlM on Sun Aug 9 17:18:21 2020, in response to Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19, posted by BILLBKLYN on Sun Aug 9 17:00:58 2020.

Yeah, but the players won't even play if covid is rampant.

One of many examples.



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Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19

Posted by AlM on Sun Aug 9 17:19:54 2020, in response to Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19, posted by pragmatist on Sun Aug 9 17:05:57 2020.

I'm trying to counter Bill that even an optimistic version of his scenario will kill the economy for years. The fact that a pessimistic scenario would be far worse is irrelevant in this particular discussion.





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Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19

Posted by pragmatist on Sun Aug 9 17:22:33 2020, in response to Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19, posted by AlM on Sun Aug 9 17:19:54 2020.

ok

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Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19

Posted by BILLBKLYN on Sun Aug 9 17:52:55 2020, in response to Re: How New Zealand Got Rid of Covid-19, posted by AlM on Sun Aug 9 17:00:10 2020.

Actually, that wasn't on my mind at all.

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