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| Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic (1714095) | |
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Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by AlM on Sun Apr 5 17:44:15 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Easy on Sun Apr 5 17:26:20 2020. Not all rural areas have a Wal-Mart as their closest comprehensive supermarket.And are you telling me that rural Wal-Marts don't have checkout lines? Henry was claiming that rural areas already practiced social distancing before the pandemic. I claim he is making that up. I've spent plenty of time in different rural places standing right next to someone else. Even a convenience store attached to a rural gas station - as you're paying there's likely to be someone right behind you breathing down your neck. |
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Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by AlM on Sun Apr 5 17:45:07 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Easy on Sun Apr 5 17:39:28 2020. And again, they will wait on the checkout line, just like in urban areas. |
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| (1714201) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by Charles G on Sun Apr 5 17:45:15 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by AlM on Sun Apr 5 17:38:23 2020. You're in good company there. Remember the Obama hyperinflation of 2011? Predicted by some of our very own OTChatters among others.Guilty as charged. |
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| (1714202) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by Easy on Sun Apr 5 17:45:18 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Charles G on Sun Apr 5 17:41:14 2020. I wonder how your friend knows who has left the building? Is it a small building? I can hardly tell who is left on my floor. No one comes out, but that doesn't mean that they have left. |
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| (1714203) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by FYBklyn1959 on Sun Apr 5 17:46:55 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by WayneJay on Sun Apr 5 15:46:52 2020. I've had a laptop for about 5-6 years at work, which I take home. This was helpful during the times I am on call (I am a programmer). I was resistant at first, but then I found out I could still use a regular monitor, keyboard and mouse via USB connection. I am about to start the second week of working from home, I brought home the keyboard from work (not the monitor) and I have substituted a wireless mouse for the wired one. I still have to use an older desktop for a task I have to perform 4 times a year, as the software is old and doesn't work on Windows 10. I tried to update it, but was unsuccessful, and I was like, something I do 4 times a year, I'm not going to spend a lot of time on. |
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| (1714204) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by Charles G on Sun Apr 5 17:48:16 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Easy on Sun Apr 5 17:45:18 2020. It's a co-op and he is on the board. People let the co-op association and the doorman know when they are going to be away for awhile. |
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| (1714205) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by Easy on Sun Apr 5 17:50:13 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by AlM on Sun Apr 5 17:45:07 2020. There is social contact, just less frequently and not as close in general. |
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| (1714206) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by AlM on Sun Apr 5 17:50:27 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Charles G on Sun Apr 5 17:41:14 2020. They are going absolutely stir-crazy at home.That's because of the lack of events of any kind to go to, which I specifically acknowledged. Once the pandemic is over, however that happens, they will again have all their events. Henry was claiming a long-term change in the attractiveness of dense urban living, post-pandemic, and I contend that it will be just as attractive (and expensive) post-pandemic as pre-pandemic. Henry would have a much stronger case under the hypothesis that the pandemic situation will never really end. But that wasn't what he was discussing. |
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| (1714207) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by Spider-Pig on Sun Apr 5 17:52:18 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by AlM on Sun Apr 5 17:44:15 2020. This should be the time to implement mobile checkout! Although given hoarding and high prices, it would be easy to steal. Why not then use a cart scale? |
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| (1714208) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by AlM on Sun Apr 5 17:53:25 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by FYBklyn1959 on Sun Apr 5 17:46:55 2020. I have a switch (price was maybe $30) that allows me to use the same keyboard, monitor, and mouse for both my personal computer and my work computer. One flick of the switch and I've gone from using one computer to the other. |
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| (1714209) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by Charles G on Sun Apr 5 17:59:50 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by AlM on Sun Apr 5 17:50:27 2020. Certainly the longer the pandemic controls stay in place, the less attractive urban living gets. As I read between the lines of what people are saying, I think this goes on for many months. Imagine those families sheltering in place in their small apartments in July and August...Even after the pandemic passes there is the spectre of living in buildings that require you to often be in close contact with your neighbors. You and I approach problems with logic and math. Many people don't, perhaps most. Even if logically not true, lots of people are going to look at everyone in the elevator with them as a potential source of disease (Covid-19 or anything else). |
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| (1714210) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by Easy on Sun Apr 5 18:02:17 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by AlM on Sun Apr 5 17:44:15 2020. Of course they have contact. They don't practice social distancing, but the nature of being rural means that they come into close contact with both fewer people and less often. |
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| (1714211) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by Spider-Pig on Sun Apr 5 18:04:49 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Easy on Sun Apr 5 18:02:17 2020. Maybe Democrats will move to the rotten states. |
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| (1714212) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by Easy on Sun Apr 5 18:05:28 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Charles G on Sun Apr 5 17:48:16 2020. I see. That makes sense. People could be dead on my floor and I wouldn't know. Hopefully not but there are people that I haven't seen in weeks. |
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| (1714213) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by Easy on Sun Apr 5 18:10:36 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Spider-Pig on Sun Apr 5 17:52:18 2020. I wouldn't want mobile checkout. I like having the checkout stands in one place near the front of the store. If the checkouts are wandering around that would be confusing. |
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| (1714214) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by Spider-Pig on Sun Apr 5 18:16:46 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Easy on Sun Apr 5 18:10:36 2020. Mobile checkout meaning you scan using your phone and walk out of the store without interacting with anyone. |
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| (1714215) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by Easy on Sun Apr 5 18:20:08 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Spider-Pig on Sun Apr 5 18:16:46 2020. I see. This was the post where I found out that you think that I'm an idiot. 😂 |
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| (1714216) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by AlM on Sun Apr 5 18:21:49 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Charles G on Sun Apr 5 17:59:50 2020. Certainly the longer the pandemic controls stay in place, the less attractive urban living gets.Sure, having more space is better. Again, the post I made related to post-pandemic times. At this very moment, I agree there would be a lot to be said for a suburban house, twice the size of our apartment, and with a back yard. On the other hand, my neighborhood has nice wide sidewalks and I can go for a morning walk without ever getting within 6 feet of anyone. That would have not been possible in the suburban neighborhood where I grew up. Also, when the pandemic is semi-over, and there is a need to go to the office, I can walk to work and my colleagues have to take a train. |
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| (1714219) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by AlM on Sun Apr 5 18:24:52 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Easy on Sun Apr 5 18:02:17 2020. My original post that you are responding to was me disagreeing with Henry's claim that rural people have been practicing social distancing all along.It's simply not true. Pre-pandemic, the typical rural resident came within 6 feet of a whole bunch of people every day they went to town. (And besides, most rural residents live in town, not on a farm.) |
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| (1714221) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by Easy on Sun Apr 5 18:29:47 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by AlM on Sun Apr 5 18:21:49 2020. I have to admit some jealousy of most of my coworkers that are at home in houses 4 times the size of my apartment, with yards, and lots of storage space. I would gladly trade that right now for the convenience of having restaurants, grocery stores, and bodegas within a 5 minute walk.Oh and my 10 ft sidewalks or whatever they are. People still walk right down the middle or on opposite sides opposite my direction so that I'm in the middle. And people line up on the sidewalk now. Waiting to get inside banks, shake shack, grocery stores, and other places. |
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| (1714222) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by Easy on Sun Apr 5 18:32:55 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by AlM on Sun Apr 5 18:24:52 2020. Ok, but I think that a less literal translation of his post is that people in rural areas practice social distancing much more often then urban dwellers. One day of close contact in NYC is more like several weeks in Iowa. |
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| (1714224) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by RockParkMan on Sun Apr 5 18:37:16 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Charles G on Sun Apr 5 17:24:44 2020. I see inflation coming. Turning on the printing press accomplishes nothing and unfortunately bank note paper doesn’t make good toilet paper. Too bad we can’t get back to specie currency rather than fiat currency. Here’s my conservative side. I like REAL money. |
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| (1714225) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by RockParkMan on Sun Apr 5 18:37:16 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Charles G on Sun Apr 5 17:24:44 2020. I see inflation coming. Turning on the printing press accomplishes nothing and unfortunately bank note paper doesn’t make good toilet paper. Too bad we can’t get back to specie currency rather than fiat currency. Here’s my conservative side. I like REAL money. |
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| (1714227) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by AlM on Sun Apr 5 18:40:03 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Easy on Sun Apr 5 18:32:55 2020. One day of close contact in NYC is more like several weeks in Iowa.Sure, but pre-pandemic typical Iowa behavior would not be good for preventing the spread of infection. They need to change their behavior too. I have simply been arguing with his having said: It likely won't, because social distancing is automatic in rural areas. |
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| (1714231) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by gp38/r42 chris on Sun Apr 5 18:47:46 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Henry R32 #3730 on Sun Apr 5 14:34:53 2020. No. There is no way the federal govt could have said in February, oh by the way, we are closing restaurants, calling off the baseball season, ending hockey and basketball, closing theaters, closing stores, shutting down hair stylists and dentists, and so forth.People would have said to fuck themselves. We are used to the idea now, but we weren't a months ago. It's easy to say in the present that should have been done, but that wasnt so easy, especially when something like this has never happened before. |
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| (1714232) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by Easy on Sun Apr 5 18:48:51 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by AlM on Sun Apr 5 18:40:03 2020. I can't speak for Henry, but I'm on record as stating that rural areas have little enough contact that their curve will be flattened without social distancing. Could it be improved with social distancing? Of course. |
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| (1714233) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by Charles G on Sun Apr 5 18:49:24 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by RockParkMan on Sun Apr 5 18:37:16 2020. I hear you, but I have also confessed to seeing inflation hiding around the corner many times before.The second and third-order economic effects are going to be massive and completely unforseen. Years of ultra-low interest rates have made borrowing a huge part of most businesses capital structure and operations. Suddenly the ability to make payments on all that debt is questionable. How do interest rates not go up in a high-risk environment? Not Fed interest rates, but the real interest rate charged by a capital provider to a creditor? And that has to get passed through with higher prices... |
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| (1714235) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by gp38/r42 chris on Sun Apr 5 18:51:58 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Easy on Sun Apr 5 17:26:20 2020. AlM can't help himself, he has a NYCentric attitude. |
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| (1714238) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by AlM on Sun Apr 5 18:53:57 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by gp38/r42 chris on Sun Apr 5 18:47:46 2020. There is no way the federal govt could have said in February, oh by the way, we are closing restaurants, calling off the baseball season, ending hockey and basketball, closing theaters, closing stores, shutting down hair stylists and dentists, and so forth.I agree. But they should have started efforts toward mega-production of masks, testing kits, and ventilators. They wasted a month or more futzing around. |
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| (1714240) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by Kevin from Midwood on Sun Apr 5 18:54:42 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by gp38/r42 chris on Sun Apr 5 18:47:46 2020. something like this has never happened before.False. |
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| (1714243) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by AlM on Sun Apr 5 18:59:08 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Charles G on Sun Apr 5 18:49:24 2020. How do interest rates not go up in a high-risk environment?If banks can borrow from the Fed at a 0% interest rate, they will loan to a creditworthy corporation at 3%. |
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| (1714248) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by gp38/r42 chris on Sun Apr 5 19:02:19 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Kevin from Midwood on Sun Apr 5 18:54:42 2020. Oh friggin stop. No one alive now has experienced this. I knew some smartass would say 1918!! |
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| (1714252) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by Charles G on Sun Apr 5 19:05:33 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by AlM on Sun Apr 5 18:53:57 2020. You're barking up the wrong tree trying to blame the only the current federal government.There was a national stockpile of masks that was drawn down for H1N1 in 2009. Every political party permutation of President/Congress since then failed to replenish the stock. New York State was warned in 2016 that they would be woefully short of ventilators in a respiratory pandemic. They ignored the advice. And the CDC completely dropped the ball on testing. I am of the opinion that private industry is always better than government at responding quickly to a challenge, but that is of course not universally shared. But you should be fair. Don't think about it in terms of what you know today, think back to your reality in late January. Impeachment ruled the day in the news and Covid-19 was just a sideline (a massive failure on the part of the US news media, btw). Imagine President Trump announcing on January 30th that he was going to suspend the long held protocol of CDC control so that private industry could produce testing kits. The press would have been all over him for "giving deals to his friends in industry" and "wagging the dog" to create a new crisis to deflect from impeachment. |
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Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by AlM on Sun Apr 5 19:07:35 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by gp38/r42 chris on Sun Apr 5 19:02:19 2020. No one alive now has experienced this.Not a good excuse. "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." A better excuse was the justifiable belief that this would be nowhere near as bad. But that excuse only gets you out of taking draconian action right away, it doesn't get you out of planning properly for a potential disaster. |
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| (1714255) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by Charles G on Sun Apr 5 19:09:02 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by AlM on Sun Apr 5 18:59:08 2020. How do you define creditworthy today? How do you project cash flow? How do you calculate net worth? How do you value collateral?Look at what has happened to spreads on pristine credits in just the past 6 weeks. |
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| (1714256) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by AlM on Sun Apr 5 19:10:46 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Charles G on Sun Apr 5 19:05:33 2020. You're barking up the wrong tree trying to blame the only the current federal government.Did I say that? |
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Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by Charles G on Sun Apr 5 19:11:28 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by AlM on Sun Apr 5 19:10:46 2020. Just making sure my friend... |
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Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by Henry R32 #3730 on Sun Apr 5 19:21:53 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by AlM on Sun Apr 5 17:44:15 2020. Have you seen a Wal-Mart shopping cart? The size of the thing forces a bare minimum of 3' of social distancing. Add in the size of a Wal-Mart Shopper and you've got 2 more feet right there! |
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| (1714263) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by AlM on Sun Apr 5 19:23:06 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Henry R32 #3730 on Sun Apr 5 19:21:53 2020. LOL. |
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Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by Jeff Rosen on Sun Apr 5 19:24:03 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Kevin from Midwood on Sun Apr 5 18:54:42 2020. Excellent article by the National Geographic. Thanks!! |
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| (1714276) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by Easy on Sun Apr 5 19:30:27 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Henry R32 #3730 on Sun Apr 5 19:21:53 2020. 😂 |
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Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by Henry R32 #3730 on Sun Apr 5 19:34:16 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by gp38/r42 chris on Sun Apr 5 18:47:46 2020. I don't see how we're in disagreement here.If Trump had a premonition and enacted 100% of the necessary measures at the exact time needed to prevent the current catastrophe, the media and democrats would have howled and and screeched fascism the entire time, then cheered as his executive orders were overturned in court right about the time it became obvious they were necessary, and we'd be fucked. They'd then blame him for "acting too early causing unnecessary confusion". Because everything the orange man does is bad, and must be bad, no matter what it is, at all times. |
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| (1714294) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by gp38/r42 chris on Sun Apr 5 19:40:22 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by AlM on Sun Apr 5 19:07:35 2020. Again, please. No one would have been able to comprehend this a month ago, much less two months ago. |
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| (1714296) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by gp38/r42 chris on Sun Apr 5 19:41:12 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by AlM on Sun Apr 5 19:10:46 2020. Yes. And you would not have if there was a D in office |
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Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by Spider-Pig on Sun Apr 5 19:42:55 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by gp38/r42 chris on Sun Apr 5 19:40:22 2020. That’s why there are eggheads who study history and science, and plan for eventualities. But they’re part of the “deep state.” |
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Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by AlM on Sun Apr 5 19:43:14 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by gp38/r42 chris on Sun Apr 5 19:40:22 2020. Huh?Plenty of people were thinking of the lessons of 1918 in January. I agree that didn't mean that a nationwide lockdown would have been appropriate then. But it was time to start thinking worst cases. I'm sure Birx and Fauci were. |
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Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by BILLBKLYN on Sun Apr 5 19:43:54 2020, in response to Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Easy on Sun Apr 5 13:27:15 2020. I like how you are met with the partisan responses! LOL |
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| (1714320) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by gp38/r42 chris on Sun Apr 5 19:48:52 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Henry R32 #3730 on Sun Apr 5 19:34:16 2020. We do agree, I was just adding to that. Sorry for the confusion |
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Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by Stephen Bauman on Sun Apr 5 20:44:51 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Charles G on Sun Apr 5 19:05:33 2020. I am of the opinion that private industry is always better than government at responding quickly to a challengeThe ventilators were to cost less than $3,000 each...Newport, which was owned by a Japanese medical device company, only made ventilators. Being a small, nimble company, Newport executives said, would help it efficiently fulfill the government’s needs...Covidien, a large medical device manufacturer, agreed to buy Newport...already sold traditional ventilators...Developing inexpensive portable ventilators no longer seemed like a top priority. |
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| (1714438) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by Spider-Pig on Mon Apr 6 11:39:26 2020, in response to Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Easy on Sun Apr 5 13:27:15 2020. 2. People seem to always think of an ancient solution to a modern problem. Domestic production would never work.The United States had been a net importer of oil for decades, until recently. Despite this, the US managed to develop a strategic reserve of oil. There's no reason that strategic reserves can't be developed of other imported items. Not only that, but this pandemic does not call for the level of production that was needed during World War II. You don't need the same production capacity to produce ventilators and hand sanitizer as you do to make tanks and ships. But look for demagogues to use a crisis to support the dying domestic industries that fund their campaigns. |
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