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| Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic (1714095) | |
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Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by AlM on Sun Apr 5 13:39:05 2020, in response to Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Easy on Sun Apr 5 13:27:15 2020. 1. The federal government already had the powers it needed. It chose not to use them for quite a while. It doesn't need any more power, and there will be bipartisan opposition to that.2. No one will pay the higher cost, except for a few really critical items. I expect more multiple sourcing - India, Thailand, Vietnam, etc. will make stuff as an alternate source to China. 3. Once this is truly over, everyone will be really happy to reconnect in person. A lot of our entertainment industry in the widest sense of the word (sports, theater, restaurants, etc.) may be severely damaged, though. 4. Big tax increases to pay for all of this. All the money borrowed for the stimulus eventually needs to be repaid. NYCT alone will need a multi-billion dollar bailout. |
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| (1714103) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by Joe V on Sun Apr 5 13:49:48 2020, in response to Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Easy on Sun Apr 5 13:27:15 2020. Outsourcing tens of millions of jobs to Asia has been going on since the 1980's. Corporate greed will simply resume where it left off. They see share price and stock options quarter to quarter, nothing more.Permanent impacts will be more more tele-conferences and more telecommuting. If it worked for a few months, then the corporate bean counters will question why they are paying rent for so many empty cubicles when the firm can function without their occupancy. T&E travel will come up increased scrutiny for budgetary reasons. There is technology for meetings. Amtrak Acela will take a permanent hit. |
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| (1714104) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by Joe V on Sun Apr 5 13:49:49 2020, in response to Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Easy on Sun Apr 5 13:27:15 2020. Outsourcing tens of millions of jobs to Asia has been going on since the 1980's. Corporate greed will simply resume where it left off. They see share price and stock options quarter to quarter, nothing more.Permanent impacts will be more more tele-conferences and more telecommuting. If it worked for a few months, then the corporate bean counters will question why they are paying rent for so many empty cubicles when the firm can function without their occupancy. T&E travel will come up increased scrutiny for budgetary reasons. There is technology for meetings. Amtrak Acela will take a permanent hit. |
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| (1714105) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by Henry R32 #3730 on Sun Apr 5 14:02:59 2020, in response to Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Easy on Sun Apr 5 13:27:15 2020. 1. A stronger federal government is a terrible idea. A mayor knows best for his city, and a governor best for his state. The federal government is supposed to be the last line of defense, not the first, because there are competing priorities on the federal level. If all 50 states are saying they need things "right now", how do you even audit and prioritize?I'm hoping for the opposite: that the illusion of the federal government as a god that will save you if you pray hard enough is shattered, and lower levels of government are held to task to do their jobs and handle crisis more directly. 2. Maybe. 3. Until there's a vaccine I doubt we will see movie theaters, concerts, sporting events, or even air travel bounce back. And even then, far fewer people will have the money to spend on such frivolities for quite a while. My additions: 4. The upscale urban housing boom is over, period. Gentrifying yuppies just had a splash of cold water thrown on their avocado toast. Turns out high density living and a reliance of public transport (without Asian-style culture and mannerisms to blunt the effect) turns you into an infectious disease hotbed, and supply chain disruptions hit cities worse than suburbs or rural areas. 5. Antivaxxers will likely never speak publicly again. As the memes have been going: we are now experiencing a world without one vaccine. |
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| (1714106) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by AlM on Sun Apr 5 14:07:14 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Joe V on Sun Apr 5 13:49:48 2020. the corporate bean counters will question why they are paying rent for so many empty cubicles when the firm can function without their occupancy.My company started moving to a shared office environment (no assigned seating space for anyone, fewer seats and docking stations than employees) already about 2 years ago. |
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| (1714108) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by Easy on Sun Apr 5 14:08:51 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Joe V on Sun Apr 5 13:49:49 2020. Thanks for the response.I can't see us relying on the next drug or next vaccine to be made in India after they refused to let drugs leave the country. That would be suicide. |
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| (1714109) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by LuchAAA on Sun Apr 5 14:11:09 2020, in response to Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Easy on Sun Apr 5 13:27:15 2020. 1. Stronger federal government.Yup. More policing. More government access to medical records. 2. and 3. will lead to increased chance of a war. |
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| (1714114) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by AlM on Sun Apr 5 14:17:29 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Henry R32 #3730 on Sun Apr 5 14:02:59 2020. 4. The upscale urban housing boom is over, period. Turns out high density living and a reliance of public transport (without Asian-style culture and mannerisms to blunt the effect) turns you into an infectious disease hotbed, and supply chain disruptions hit cities worse than suburbs or rural areas.No. Comfortably middle class (and well-to-do) life in Manhattan has hardly been disrupted, except for the lack of events to go to. Once the vaccine is here, everything will be back to normal. I am at no more risk of contacting the virus than you are, probably less. The supply chain is doing fine here. There are tractor trailers unloading in front of our supermarket every weekday. True, I don't dare use the subway. But where is there to go, anyway? It's working class city residents who may very well have it worse than their suburban counterparts, because they have to use the subway to get to their job. There aren't any maps of virus incidence by neighborhood, but it's not a coincidence that Manhattan is the borough least affected. The big source of virus incidence in the non-working-class areas of Manhattan is that bars and restaurants were still open through March 15th. |
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| (1714116) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by AlM on Sun Apr 5 14:19:33 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Easy on Sun Apr 5 14:08:51 2020. The covid-19 vaccine will be made in many countries. And customers will pay a very good price for it. Any country that refuses to export it will lose out on the revenue they need to recover their costs. |
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| (1714117) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by Easy on Sun Apr 5 14:20:35 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by AlM on Sun Apr 5 14:17:29 2020. I'm not confident about a vaccine but even if there is one, there will be fear of the next pandemic. This is likely a natural mutation of SARS from 10 years ago. We never had a vaccine for that and what about other mutations that may be worse? |
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| (1714119) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by Easy on Sun Apr 5 14:21:56 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Henry R32 #3730 on Sun Apr 5 14:02:59 2020. Good list. My point about the federal government is that it doesn't look like a pandemic can be contained at the local level. We would be better with a large scale national response. |
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| (1714120) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by Easy on Sun Apr 5 14:23:29 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by AlM on Sun Apr 5 14:19:33 2020. I mean what about when we need a covid-24 vaccine? Or a MERS-27? |
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| (1714121) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by AlM on Sun Apr 5 14:24:06 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Easy on Sun Apr 5 14:20:35 2020. Worse mutations usually kill fewer people, because people infected with it transmit it to fewer others before they get sick and die. That's what made SARS fizzle out. It had something like a 60% death rate. And that's why there is no money in a SARS vaccine.In contrast, customers will pay hundreds of billions of dollars for a covid-19 vaccine. And it spreads so much more easily than SARS because you can spread it for days while not knowing you are sick. |
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| (1714122) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by LuchAAA on Sun Apr 5 14:24:15 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Easy on Sun Apr 5 14:20:35 2020. the drug companies LOVE this pandemic because it will strengthen the vaccine argument.The percentage of people who get a COVID shot every year will be greater than flu shots. COVID will be to big pharma what 9/11 was to military and other branches of government. |
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| (1714123) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by AlM on Sun Apr 5 14:24:56 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Easy on Sun Apr 5 14:21:56 2020. We would be better with a large scale national response.Very likely true. The powers are already there. |
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| (1714124) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by Easy on Sun Apr 5 14:26:03 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by AlM on Sun Apr 5 14:24:06 2020. You do realize that covid-19 is SARS? It's SARS-Cov-19. |
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| (1714125) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by AlM on Sun Apr 5 14:27:12 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Easy on Sun Apr 5 14:23:29 2020. Yes, it is probably good policy to fund a certain amount of vaccine production capability and research out of taxpayer dollars so that no one is dependent on relatively few sources for a covid-24 vaccine.This applies not just to the US, but also to other prosperous countries. |
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| (1714126) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by AlM on Sun Apr 5 14:33:58 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Easy on Sun Apr 5 14:26:03 2020. Yes, I realize that Covid-19 is a Sudden Acute Respiratory Syndrome.There seem to be two theories. One is that it is a mutation that came from animals in the Wuhan live animal market. The other is that it is a prior coronavirus (maybe the prior SARS) that mutated. I haven't read much about the two theories and which is now considered more credible. Do you have a credible link that indicates the consensus is now that it came from the prior SARS? The political theory is definitely that it came from Chinese carelessness in dealing with animals. |
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| (1714127) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by Easy on Sun Apr 5 14:34:29 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Easy on Sun Apr 5 14:26:03 2020. Johns Hopkins |
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| (1714128) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by Henry R32 #3730 on Sun Apr 5 14:34:53 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Easy on Sun Apr 5 14:21:56 2020. Most of the responses that can be done nationally and can't be done locally are already done: international travel bans, the defense production act, barring 3M and other countries from exporting our PPE. We've already called in the army to help at the Javits Center. The last few things we can do would be on the level of a domestic travel ban. |
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| (1714129) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by AlM on Sun Apr 5 14:35:20 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by LuchAAA on Sun Apr 5 14:24:15 2020. One should not need to get a Covid-19 shot every year. You can't possibly know that there will be new variants of Covid every year. |
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| (1714131) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by LuchAAA on Sun Apr 5 14:36:42 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by AlM on Sun Apr 5 14:33:58 2020. Chinese carelessness in dealing with animals.they already import tons of beef and pork from the US. And they have been "dealing with animals" for centuries. I doubt this pandemic started at an animal market. |
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| (1714132) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by AlM on Sun Apr 5 14:37:30 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Henry R32 #3730 on Sun Apr 5 14:34:53 2020. The emergency orders to shut down sports, restaurants, etc. could also have been exercised at a national level. They might have had dubious legality, but that is true of the state bans too. |
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| (1714133) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by Easy on Sun Apr 5 14:38:15 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Henry R32 #3730 on Sun Apr 5 14:34:53 2020. The most important thing to stop the spread is sheltering at home at the same time and that can't be coordinated at the local level. |
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| (1714135) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by Henry R32 #3730 on Sun Apr 5 14:40:07 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by AlM on Sun Apr 5 14:35:20 2020. There's 8 strains right now.If *everyone* who can get a vaccine does, we won't get a new one every year. If people fuck around and don't, over the years it will mutate and we'll need a new one again. |
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| (1714137) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by AlM on Sun Apr 5 14:42:30 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Easy on Sun Apr 5 14:38:15 2020. ???The states have done a pretty good job of making that happen at a local level. Interstate travel has dropped to almost zero (except for commuting to work, and a bunch of one-time trips as people relocate to a second home or to the home of another family member), without any federal order to make that happen. I agree that it might have been done at the federal level, but it wasn't. |
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| (1714141) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by Henry R32 #3730 on Sun Apr 5 14:47:19 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Easy on Sun Apr 5 14:38:15 2020. On the contrary, it must be on the local level. A place with low population density that hasn't seen a single case would tell the federal government to go fuck itself, killing the credibility of anyone calling for a lockdown when one really is needed for that town.We already lower levels telling upper levels of government to go fuck itself on: -Sanctuary cities -Legal weed -2nd Amendment restrictions (Virginia) |
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| (1714142) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by AlM on Sun Apr 5 14:48:08 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Henry R32 #3730 on Sun Apr 5 14:40:07 2020. A few people won't get vaccinated, but enough will to produce herd immunity. Schools, and probably even employers, will demand vaccination certificates. |
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| (1714150) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by Joe V on Sun Apr 5 14:59:28 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Henry R32 #3730 on Sun Apr 5 14:40:07 2020. I think it will be like Flu or Shingles. The vax's aren't 100%, but if you catch the disease, you won't be as sick as though you got no vax at all.I get a flu shot every year, but have not had flu in 22 years, not even an old-fashioned common cold in 2 years this June. |
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| (1714156) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by Easy on Sun Apr 5 15:09:54 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by AlM on Sun Apr 5 14:42:30 2020. Many states only started sheltering in the last few days. Some still haven't done it.There was lots of criticism by heath professionals on CNN 3 weeks ago when it was just a handful of local states. You're saying that was all a good job at the local level? |
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| (1714162) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by AlM on Sun Apr 5 15:20:47 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Easy on Sun Apr 5 15:09:54 2020. Sorry, I was thinking more about travel than things like bars and restaurants and distancing rules.I agree that some states (maybe even many) have brought themselves avoidable trouble by not putting the right rules in place until way too late. But the states could have done so, as could the federal government. Some states just chose not to, like the federal government chose not to. I agree that the only way to get good compliance with a policy nationwide is to have the federal government do it, because some states will always fail. Please note that I already agreed to that quite a few posts ago. |
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| (1714166) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by Catfish 44 on Sun Apr 5 15:35:07 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by LuchAAA on Sun Apr 5 14:36:42 2020. Have you seen the conditions of that so called 'market'? |
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| (1714170) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by WayneJay on Sun Apr 5 15:46:52 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by AlM on Sun Apr 5 14:07:14 2020. Yup! I'm in the IT field and that's absolutely a trend including moving away from desktops in favor of laptops. |
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| (1714171) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by WayneJay on Sun Apr 5 15:47:58 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Joe V on Sun Apr 5 13:49:48 2020. Agreed! I think we'll have the complaints and such, but as soon as things are back to normal... It'll be business (greed) as usual. |
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| (1714173) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by Spider-Pig on Sun Apr 5 16:07:37 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by AlM on Sun Apr 5 14:17:29 2020. Excellent post. This will, however, be used as an excuse for antiurban policies from the reactionaries in the former Republican Party. Especially given our federal rural bias. |
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| (1714176) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by Joe V on Sun Apr 5 16:16:42 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Spider-Pig on Sun Apr 5 16:07:37 2020. Wait 'til this hits rural Red sates in a couple of months. Then re-evaluate. |
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| (1714178) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by Henry R32 #3730 on Sun Apr 5 16:37:15 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Joe V on Sun Apr 5 16:16:42 2020. It likely won't, because social distancing is automatic in rural areas. |
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| (1714179) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by Joe V on Sun Apr 5 16:41:20 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Henry R32 #3730 on Sun Apr 5 16:37:15 2020. Rural areas have towns and strip malls with stores. There is no more "automatic" social distancing in their Walmart or Albertson's than in your Gristedes or C-Town. |
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| (1714181) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by AlM on Sun Apr 5 16:46:51 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Henry R32 #3730 on Sun Apr 5 16:37:15 2020. Perhaps you've never been to a supermarket or a hardware store in a rural area. It's really no different from similar stores in urban areas. You're often right up next to someone else, say when you're waiting on line to pay or two of you are looking at the same display, unless (as now) there is a deliberate store policy asking you to keep your distance.And rural bars and restaurants usually have about the same table spacing as urban and suburban ones - maybe 10% less dense. |
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| (1714182) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by Henry R32 #3730 on Sun Apr 5 16:56:55 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by AlM on Sun Apr 5 16:46:51 2020. ... the supermarkets and hardware stores where I am are the ones the rural folk come to.Outside Christmas time there's never a crowd. When Cuomo enacted the statewide lockdown the prevailing thought was "why should this matter to us, NYC are the ones who are screwed". That attitude is still present. Our hospitals are so capable of handling it that we're handling NYC patients up here and shipping our ventilators down there. We didn't need to be a part of "shelter in place". We could have benefitted from cutting off all travel from the NY metro area, and gone about our business as normal, and this is just within one state. Trying to force the entire country would be a non-starter. |
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| (1714183) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by AlM on Sun Apr 5 17:01:55 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Henry R32 #3730 on Sun Apr 5 16:56:55 2020. Manhattan supermarkets aren't crowded either. If too many people show up at once, they make the overflow wait outside, at 6 foot separation.My family has had a summer home in far western Greene County for 64 years. Stores there under normal spacing certainly present more risk than stores here under current circumstances. I suspect they have put 6 foot distancing rules into place there too. |
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Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by Charles G on Sun Apr 5 17:24:44 2020, in response to Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Easy on Sun Apr 5 13:27:15 2020. It is probably too early to identify any long-term impacts, as we are still probably closer to the beginning of the crisis than we are to the end.I do think there is a likelihood of increased nationalism / regionalism. A globalized supply chain is wonderful for cheap products in normal times, but far from ideal in a crisis. People banged the drum for the President to nationalize production, without realizing that the US no longer has the means to be a great manufacturer -- certainly not on short notice. As recently as the late 80's the US economy was 70% manufacturing and 30% service. That flipped around to 30/70 in the early 2000's and I'd guess is closer to 20/80 now. People are going to bang the drum for domestic production -- but domestic production isn't about paying 10% more, it's about paying 2, 3 or 4 times more. Are Americans ready to pay $25 for a t-shirt that costs $7 today? Abroad, the EU is more fractured than ever -- so many of the principles that it was based on were tossed out the window even by the staunchest supporters. Though I don't think it likely, it isn't beyond the realm of possibility that the EU loses more countries or dissolves entirely. Politically, I don't see any individual or political party taking a major hit from this. Outside of Asia, where people had the SARS experience to fall back on and were quickly receptive to social isolation, no country has handled the outbreak all that well -- and this spans all political ideologies and all types of health delivery systems (private competition, single payer etc.). And this was not an unforeseen crisis -- Global Pandemic has been a regular among the top 10 global risks at the World Economic Forum in Davos for as long as I can recall. At my old firm, it was something we planned for (i.e. what are all the things that can go wrong in a pandemic and how does the firm survive?). Clearly politicians past and present and of all political stripes dropped the ball. Economically, it is far more difficult to figure out. One thing that is clear is that the next generation if F--ked with a capital F. The trillions and trillions of stimulus spending will have to paid over the next 20-30 years and land squarely on the backs of the current 20- and 30- somethings. I am concerned about an inflation spike as the social isolation ends. Once the social isolation does end, production may not be ready to handle whatever demand is unleashed. Full disclosure on that one - I have called 10 out of the last 2 inflation spikes. Beyond that, it isn't even clear how the crisis ends. The "flatten the curve" argument was a gross oversimplification in that the curve varies regionally (and nobody ever labeled the x-axis beyond just calling it "time", which would horrify my HS Algebra teacher). What happens when New York is near the end of the curve but the rest of the country isn't? In Europe, they seem to have thought about it a bit more -- but with no good solutions. People are kicking around ideas of "Covid-19 passports" allowing people who show certain antibodies to go back to work -- which seems a sure-fire road to social unrest (How does one acquire the antibodies if they've been diligently social distancing all this time? Does that mean everyone else gets to work and you get to socially isolate forever?). |
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Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by Easy on Sun Apr 5 17:26:20 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by AlM on Sun Apr 5 16:46:51 2020. Your info may be out of date. The supermarket and hardware stores in rural areas are the same place now - Walmart or Walmart Supercemter. And they tend to be more spacious than urban supermarkets, especially NYC grocery stores where two carts barely fit by each other. |
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Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by LuchAAA on Sun Apr 5 17:30:55 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Easy on Sun Apr 5 17:26:20 2020. he lives in Manhattan.NYC does not have Walmart. He is out of touch with America. |
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Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by Spider-Pig on Sun Apr 5 17:32:12 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by LuchAAA on Sun Apr 5 17:30:55 2020. Thanks to proto-AOC types. |
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Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by Joe V on Sun Apr 5 17:34:43 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Easy on Sun Apr 5 17:26:20 2020. There are some scrappy old IGA's out in God's county too. I've been at many Empire Builder towns in western Montana. Not a great place to find a hospital either. |
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Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by AlM on Sun Apr 5 17:38:23 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Charles G on Sun Apr 5 17:24:44 2020. I have called 10 out of the last 2 inflation spikes.You're in good company there. Remember the Obama hyperinflation of 2011? Predicted by some of our very own OTChatters among others. As for the future, the key is really cheap widespread testing, like the ability to do 100 million tests in a month. Then an employer can ask you to get tested every month as a condition for working there. Just like drug testing! Also some revision of work practices. Like making sure that in manufacturing and construction you work with the same team day in and day out. But I suspect that sports, theaters, and restaurants are going to be in very bad shape until there is a vaccine. |
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| (1714195) | |
Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by Easy on Sun Apr 5 17:39:28 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by Joe V on Sun Apr 5 17:34:43 2020. Yeah, people still need to make smaller purchases, but their big shopping trips will be to the supercenter if there's one within 30 miles. |
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Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic |
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Posted by Charles G on Sun Apr 5 17:41:14 2020, in response to Re: Long term political and economic impacts of the pandemic, posted by AlM on Sun Apr 5 14:17:29 2020. No. Comfortably middle class (and well-to-do) life in Manhattan has hardly been disrupted, except for the lack of events to go to. Once the vaccine is here, everything will be back to normal.I'm not sure that's entirely true. A friend (an attorney, living a comfortable upper middle class lifestyle) lives with his wife and nine-year old son in a 2BR apartment on the Upper East Side. They are going absolutely stir-crazy at home. He also estimates that somewhere close to half of his building has left the city. Part of what is making upper-middle class Manhattan life more bearable is that so many of those folks have left town. Holding out hope for a magic vaccine is one approach -- but we are in the absolute infancy of knowing anything at all about this virus. Think about how often information changes or all the conflicting and contradictory reports of things that work or don't work, and I think you'll adjust your expected timeframe for a widely available vaccine much further out. For a retiree or an empty-nester that isn't a big deal. For a family with children, every month of a sh-tty quality of life is one month too long. House rentals in Greenwich Ct are currently being snapped up in days. Houses that have been for sale for months and even years have set off rental bidding wars in the last few weeks. Most of these are short-term leases in the hopes that things quickly get back to normal. If things don't get quickly back to normal, the next step is making the move permanent. |
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