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Ventilators

Posted by Charles G on Sat Apr 4 18:28:20 2020

We've heard all the discussions of ventilator shortages and ventilator emergency production. With that in mind, I found the following to be interesting...

A friend shared with me today that at one local tri-state area hospital, they have not had a single Covid-19 patient that went on a ventilator and survived. Zero. While some are still on the machines, their prognosis is not good.

That seemed shocking to me, but upon further research it seems that such an outcome at one hospital should not be surprising at all.

In the limited statistical undertakings that I was able to find, it seems the survival rate for ventilated patients is well below 50% -- around 33% in a few studies and sometimes far lower.

The NPR link below combined with the WaPo link below lead to a disturbing question. The NPR link notes the very low success rate for ventilators and also notes that the time on ventilators with Covid-19 is quite long. The WaPo article notes that the longer you are on a ventilator the worse your future quality of life is.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/02/826105278/ventilators-are-no-panacea-for-critically-ill-covid-19-patients

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/03/coronavirus-survivors-recovery/

https://www.physiciansweekly.com/mortality-rate-of-covid-19-patients-on-ventilators/

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(1713921)

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Re: Ventilators

Posted by AlM on Sat Apr 4 18:39:16 2020, in response to Ventilators, posted by Charles G on Sat Apr 4 18:28:20 2020.

I was under the vague impression that there was a 50% success rate for ventilators. These articles are obviously much less optimistic.

Makes me more inclined to think that if I end up getting this I want to write out a no-ventilator statement.



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(1713923)

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Re: Ventilators

Posted by Easy on Sat Apr 4 18:46:28 2020, in response to Re: Ventilators, posted by AlM on Sat Apr 4 18:39:16 2020.

And looking at the news and recalling JayZee's earlier post, many people aren't admitted until they are in such bad shape that they are immediately intubated. So you either recover at home or are 50/50 at the hospital. Not a good situation.

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(1713927)

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Re: Ventilators

Posted by Stephen Bauman on Sat Apr 4 18:57:29 2020, in response to Re: Ventilators, posted by AlM on Sat Apr 4 18:39:16 2020.

I posted the 20% to 50% range within the last couple of days.

If you are in that range, you will come off the ventilator in 3 to 5 days. It gets progressively worse, the longer you stay on.

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(1713929)

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Re: Ventilators

Posted by Stephen Bauman on Sat Apr 4 19:00:35 2020, in response to Ventilators, posted by Charles G on Sat Apr 4 18:28:20 2020.

There are still 20% to 50% who can be saved on ventilators. That's usually within 4 to 5 days.

Most times ventilators are used, in non-Covid19 cases, the duration is 2 to 3 days.

Cuomo has covered this thoroughly in is briefings.

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(1713938)

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Re: Ventilators

Posted by JayZeeBMT on Sat Apr 4 19:11:41 2020, in response to Re: Ventilators, posted by AlM on Sat Apr 4 18:39:16 2020.

I've already included the three magic words in my advance directive:

No prolonged intubation.

I know my chances on a ventilator are slim to none.

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(1713943)

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Re: Ventilators

Posted by Easy on Sat Apr 4 19:15:49 2020, in response to Re: Ventilators, posted by JayZeeBMT on Sat Apr 4 19:11:41 2020.

Suppose you get chosen for that hydroxy whatever and get cured?

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(1713953)

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Re: Ventilators

Posted by Charles G on Sat Apr 4 19:20:54 2020, in response to Re: Ventilators, posted by JayZeeBMT on Sat Apr 4 19:11:41 2020.

Be careful with vague words like "prolonged" What is prolonged to you may not be prolonged to someone who has to make a decision for you.



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(1713955)

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Re: Ventilators

Posted by AlM on Sat Apr 4 19:22:36 2020, in response to Re: Ventilators, posted by Easy on Sat Apr 4 19:15:49 2020.

The problem being that the fatal dose is twice the effective dose.

It seems to help some people, but has to be used very carefully and doesn't necessarily help.


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(1713956)

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Re: Ventilators

Posted by Easy on Sat Apr 4 19:23:55 2020, in response to Re: Ventilators, posted by AlM on Sat Apr 4 19:22:36 2020.

Yeah, I'm just sayin. You never know.

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(1713959)

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Re: Ventilators

Posted by AlM on Sat Apr 4 19:26:16 2020, in response to Re: Ventilators, posted by Easy on Sat Apr 4 19:23:55 2020.

Well, I won't, that's for sure. The chloroquine drugs aren't permitted for anyone over 65.



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(1713961)

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Re: Ventilators

Posted by Easy on Sat Apr 4 19:27:13 2020, in response to Re: Ventilators, posted by Charles G on Sat Apr 4 19:20:54 2020.

Good point. Be specific. I wouldn't know what prolonged meant.

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(1713965)

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Re: Ventilators

Posted by Easy on Sat Apr 4 19:34:34 2020, in response to Re: Ventilators, posted by AlM on Sat Apr 4 19:26:16 2020.

Woah. Didn't know that.

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(1713967)

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Re: Ventilators

Posted by Kevin from Midwood on Sat Apr 4 19:37:38 2020, in response to Re: Ventilators, posted by AlM on Sat Apr 4 19:22:36 2020.

What about the other drug therapies under trial (clazakizumab, tocilizumab, Kevzara, and Remdesivir)? If you do get infected, the situation at the time it happens could be different than it is now.

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(1713968)

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Re: Ventilators

Posted by AlM on Sat Apr 4 19:38:02 2020, in response to Ventilators, posted by Charles G on Sat Apr 4 18:28:20 2020.

This article (you have to page down fairly far) suggests somewhat better luck with ventilators on younger patients. It also says this hospital is using chloroquine drugs a fair amount and still isn't sure how well they are working.


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(1713969)

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Re: Ventilators

Posted by AlM on Sat Apr 4 19:40:57 2020, in response to Re: Ventilators, posted by Kevin from Midwood on Sat Apr 4 19:37:38 2020.

Here's hoping something will work decently, and soon.

If you could cut the death rate by a factor of 10, the idea of herd immunity would become more practical.

Right now I'm figuring I don't get to use public transportation or see any entertainment event again until I get vaccinated.



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(1713970)

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Re: Ventilators

Posted by Easy on Sat Apr 4 19:45:08 2020, in response to Re: Ventilators, posted by AlM on Sat Apr 4 19:40:57 2020.

How likely is that? Has there ever been a vaccine for a coronavirus?

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(1713971)

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Re: Ventilators

Posted by AlM on Sat Apr 4 20:00:47 2020, in response to Re: Ventilators, posted by Easy on Sat Apr 4 19:45:08 2020.

A vaccine is expected some time in 2021.

Or else I can wait until the US has herd immunity. I don't dare let myself get a mild case. My lungs are in good shape, but my wife has asthma and she could easily catch it from me and die or become permanently disabled.



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(1713972)

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Re: Ventilators

Posted by JayZeeBMT on Sat Apr 4 20:03:26 2020, in response to Re: Ventilators, posted by Charles G on Sat Apr 4 19:20:54 2020.

"Prolonged" in a hospital > 72 hours.

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(1713973)

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Re: Ventilators

Posted by LuchAAA on Sat Apr 4 20:04:42 2020, in response to Ventilators, posted by Charles G on Sat Apr 4 18:28:20 2020.

Maybe your friend us at a hospital in an area with far less asthma and other respiratory conditions than a place like NYC where it's bad.

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(1713974)

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Re: Ventilators

Posted by Easy on Sat Apr 4 20:08:08 2020, in response to Re: Ventilators, posted by AlM on Sat Apr 4 20:00:47 2020.

Well that's the internet rumor anyway.

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(1713975)

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Re: Ventilators

Posted by AlM on Sat Apr 4 20:11:37 2020, in response to Re: Ventilators, posted by Easy on Sat Apr 4 20:08:08 2020.

I've seen from more reputable sources like Nicholas Kristof that this is the scientific community's guesstimate.


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(1713976)

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Re: Ventilators

Posted by Easy on Sat Apr 4 20:14:59 2020, in response to Re: Ventilators, posted by AlM on Sat Apr 4 20:11:37 2020.

Does that include mutations? I think that the theory is that this virus is a natural mutation of previous coronaviruses like SARS. It could very well come back much stronger.

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(1713977)

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Re: Ventilators

Posted by AlM on Sat Apr 4 20:16:36 2020, in response to Re: Ventilators, posted by Easy on Sat Apr 4 20:14:59 2020.

I don't have hard information. I don't think anyone really does.




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(1713979)

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Re: Ventilators

Posted by Easy on Sat Apr 4 20:19:18 2020, in response to Re: Ventilators, posted by AlM on Sat Apr 4 20:16:36 2020.

I expect the worst. I think that this is the practice run for the real deal.

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(1713983)

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Re: Ventilators

Posted by Charles G on Sat Apr 4 20:35:21 2020, in response to Re: Ventilators, posted by JayZeeBMT on Sat Apr 4 20:03:26 2020.

What is it in a courtroom? I'd really advise you to be specific.

Stay safe and healthy,

CG

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(1713985)

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Re: Ventilators

Posted by Easy on Sat Apr 4 20:53:52 2020, in response to Re: Ventilators, posted by JayZeeBMT on Sat Apr 4 20:03:26 2020.

I just asked someone that works in a hospital as a medical professional that may or may not be related to me and that's not true. "Prolonged" in a hospital is just as ambiguous as it is outside a hospital.

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(1714069)

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Re: Ventilators

Posted by bingbong on Sun Apr 5 11:28:47 2020, in response to Re: Ventilators, posted by AlM on Sat Apr 4 18:39:16 2020.

Do it now. Get it notarized. Tell your loved ones to expect the hospital will ask them if you really meant it. They will do that, they always do. It's the hardest question they will have to answer in their lives. Talk through what and why you want that answer to be.

This is much easier said than done.

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(2025089)

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Re: Ventilators?

Posted by Olog-hai on Tue Sep 16 04:21:38 2025, in response to Re: Ventilators, posted by AlM on Sat Apr 4 19:26:16 2020.

WAAM

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(2025090)

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Re: Ventilators

Posted by TRAIN DUDE on Tue Sep 16 08:34:23 2025, in response to Re: Ventilators, posted by bingbong on Sun Apr 5 11:28:47 2020.

You've got the advice from bingbong AKA the legal expert

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