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| Trump is headed for a win (1395140) | |
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Trump is headed for a win |
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Posted by Dave on Fri Sep 23 11:32:56 2016 Says professor who has predicted 30 years of presidential outcomes correctly |
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Re: Trump is headed for a win |
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Posted by AlM on Fri Sep 23 11:55:36 2016, in response to Trump is headed for a win, posted by Dave on Fri Sep 23 11:32:56 2016. 1984 and 1996 were no brainers. 2008 and 2012 weren't that hard either. That leaves 4 elections that were hard to predict. So probably about 1 in 16 (16=2^4) pundits have predicted the last 30 years of elections correctly. |
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Re: Trump is headed for a win |
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Posted by Spider-Pig on Fri Sep 23 12:02:43 2016, in response to Re: Trump is headed for a win, posted by AlM on Fri Sep 23 11:55:36 2016. I think it's 1 in 8. 1988 was easy to predict.
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Re: Trump is headed for a win |
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Posted by salaamallah@hotmail.com on Fri Sep 23 12:13:46 2016, in response to Re: Trump is headed for a win, posted by Spider-Pig on Fri Sep 23 12:02:43 2016. hmmmmmmmm |
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Re: Trump is headed for a win |
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Posted by SLRT on Fri Sep 23 12:19:03 2016, in response to Re: Trump is headed for a win, posted by Spider-Pig on Fri Sep 23 12:02:43 2016. We can also look at some of the generally accepted maxims (a lot of the above may be true but weren't contemporaneously considered "maxims")My favorite is that (since Lincoln) every President elected in a year ending in "zero" would die in office. Until Reagan, whose age seemed to make it particularly likely he would die in office. "As Maine goes, so goes the Nation." In 1936 that became "as Maine goes so goes Vermont." "Roosevelt's sweep of all but two states won't be repeated." Nixon 1976. My second favorite would be "No President who lies about getting blow jobs from staff can remain in office." |
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Re: Trump is headed for a win |
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Posted by AlM on Fri Sep 23 12:33:57 2016, in response to Re: Trump is headed for a win, posted by Spider-Pig on Fri Sep 23 12:02:43 2016. Nice compilation. |
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Re: Trump is headed for a win |
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Posted by salaamallah@hotmail.com on Fri Sep 23 12:34:23 2016, in response to Trump is headed for a win, posted by Dave on Fri Sep 23 11:32:56 2016. ..............ok |
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Re: Trump is headed for a win |
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Posted by AlM on Fri Sep 23 12:39:23 2016, in response to Re: Trump is headed for a win, posted by SLRT on Fri Sep 23 12:19:03 2016. (since Lincoln)WH Harrison. 7 in a row. I've heard unsupported claims that Kennedy said, well I'll break this streak. Until Reagan, whose age seemed to make it particularly likely he would die in office. Not to mention two assassination attempts (though not known in advance, of course). |
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Re: Trump is headed for a win |
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Posted by SLRT on Fri Sep 23 12:46:42 2016, in response to Re: Trump is headed for a win, posted by AlM on Fri Sep 23 12:33:57 2016. Another reason these little statements irritate me is, if they were really true, we could simply run the entire election in "Podunk Flats, Michigan, population 26, that has voted for the winning candidate in every election."And the rest of us could get more sleep, or do something really useful, like drink beer and munch nachos. |
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