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| Re: The End of Gays: Yes, it is happening (957555) | |||
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Re: The End of Gays: Yes, it is happening |
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Posted by JayMan on Tue Jul 10 20:04:24 2012, in response to Re: The End of Gays: Yes, it is happening, posted by SMAZ on Tue Jul 10 18:09:51 2012. OK, let's break this down:97% of the male population is heterosexual. Roughly correct, yes. Even if as many as a third of the 3% of men who are are gay reproduce (highly doubt that it would be that many) For the purposes of this discussion, I'm lumping in bisexual men with "gay", such that "gay" means any man with same-sex attraction. According to the GSS data, the mean number of children had by "gay" men (at least of the cohort born in the 1960s) is about 0.95, which is an average of one child per gay man per lifetime. If we assume a plausible distribution, then perhaps about 50% have two or more children while the other 50% have none. and produce the same per capita number of children as straights and even accepting your 22% vs 50% numbers, it would still mean that 99% of breeders are straight men and that 99% of children come from such men. OK, that makes no sense whatsoever. The data state that gay men in the past fathered two children on average each. The prevalence of non-heterosexuality among men was slightly higher in the past (~4-5%). As such, while 95% of breeding men were straight, anywhere up 100% of gay men could have been fathered by gay men. The real percentage is probably significantly lower, but nothing in these data rules out that possibility. Your "analysis" is bereft of such basic arithmetic calculation and is a laughable exercise in base-rate fallacy. There's just nothing to add to that one...other than, see above. |
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