|Re: Sole North Korean prison camp escapee found outside world to be ''paradise'' (937353)|
|Home > OTChat|
Re: Sole North Korean prison camp escapee found outside world to be ''paradise''
Posted by WillD on Tue May 1 03:51:32 2012, in response to Re: Sole North Korean prison camp escapee found outside world to be ''paradise'', posted by ClearAspect on Mon Apr 30 15:49:35 2012.I would suspect a war with the North would actually remain relatively well contained. What regional allies they have in Russia and China cannot afford to actively support them as they might have 30 years ago. Those allies that would stand by them are geographically removed from them and unable to project power. They can cause trouble in their own respect and make things very difficult for us, but they would be unlikely to play a significant role in the outcome of a conflict on the Korean peninsula.
That's not to say there wouldn't be collateral damage. Seoul is nearly within range of NK heavy artillery on the DMZ and would be shelled from the first day of the war. But even with a million man army I have a hard time believing North Korea's army of the 1970s, still built around the Soviet doctrines that let the Iraqis down so famously in 1991, would stand much of a chance against our army which is still fully capable of performing the 'strikebreaker' mission against Soviet armored divisions pouring through the Fulda Gap into West Germany. It'd be messy, but it's highly unlikely the North Koreans would come out on the winning side, and they have to know that.
Much more important than the war itself is the aftermath. More than likely the Chinese and South Koreans in particular would rather not have an enormous humanitarian crisis and power vacuum on their hands once the Kims are gone and we're left picking up the pieces. The US is in no position to provide the requisite care for the millions of starving and oppressed yet nearly brainwashed inhabitants of North Korea. If Japan has any sense of dignity they'll help out, since this really is their fault in the end, but they'll probably handle things at arms length.
So really it's gonna come down to South Korea and maybe China caring for whatever refugees are left in North Korea when their government's house of cards comes crashing down, whether by warfare or other means. With both nations' economies riding high they have to be looking at the abrupt end of the West German miracle in 1991, and more recently the mess Saddam made of the Iraqi economy (and there they had oil income!), and fearing what economic horrors are being perpetrated right alongside the humanitarian crisis.
Ultimately we have the means to remove North Korea's leaders from power. But far more important than establishing air supremacy, winning the ground war, and even occupying the country would be establishing the long term stability of the country. We would inevitably be drawn into nation-building in a country where the populace has been conditioned to regard themselves as morally superior to all outsiders.
All that having been said, the most likely and, unfortunately, probably the happiest outcome for the people stuck in North Korea is for the Chinese to bump off Kim Jong-Un before he can have a kid and install their own puppet leader.
(There are no responses to this message.)