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Posted by
Olog-hai
on Thu Nov 17 01:52:05 2011, in response to Re: Central Europe scared by Russo-German friendliness (New Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact), posted by Olog-hai on Mon Dec 6 01:14:07 2010.
edf40wrjww2msgDetailOT:detailStr fiogf49gjkf0d Stratfor
Poland, Russia Competing for Courtship with GermanyNovember 15, 2011 | 0302 GMTDuring an interview with German daily Süddeutsche Zeitung published Monday, Russian Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko called for a comprehensive energy alliance between Russia and Germany. Shmatko proposed that the two countries jointly construct nuclear power plants and that Russia’s energy industry seek to work on major projects with leading German companies like Siemens. Shmatko added that Russia was ready to invest in these projects and that the first joint Russian-German power plant projects could be ready in as few as four years.
Russian cooperation with Germany in the energy sphere is not new. A few weeks ago, both countries inaugurated the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline, which sends Russian gas supplies directly to Germany via the Baltic Sea. Nord Stream serves as the cornerstone of Russian-German energy ties, yet is by no means the only recent development. Indeed, on the same day Shmatko’s interview was published, Russian gas giant Gazprom purchased Envacom, a German electricity and telecommunications firm.
But Moscow would like to increase the scope of its energy ties to Berlin and is actively working to build this relationship. Russia has proposed numerous joint ventures with Germany and has been seeking to purchase some of Germany’s energy utilities that operate more widely throughout Europe. The reasoning behind this is just as geopolitical as it is commercial. While Russia stands to benefit financially from greater access to Europe’s largest energy consumer, Germany also offers Russia technology and expertise that are crucial to Russia’s modernization drive. Perhaps more importantly, a Germany linked to Russia in the energy and economic fields is less likely to challenge Moscow in wider strategic areas, such as Russia’s relationship with and resurgence into its former Soviet periphery. Russia seeks joint ventures with German energy firms not only so that Moscow will be left alone to manage its dealings in Central Europe, but also as part of an active expansionary policy in the region.
Russia’s obvious desire to team up with Germany in the energy realm has not been greeted enthusiastically by all. Countries in Central and Eastern Europe have watched nervously as the two states that dominated them in the not-so-distant past reinvigorate their relationship. Granted, joint ventures and gas pipelines do not equate to the recreation of the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact, but these states have to consider the possibility of a greater threat materializing in the future.
Poland is particularly concerned, and in fact Warsaw has feverishly attempted to counter a growing relationship between Berlin and Moscow. Poland realizes it cannot challenge Russia alone, and so has tried to include Germany in any energy-related plans. Poland took German energy firm E.On’ s cue in taking Gazprom to court over natural gas prices, trying to block Russia’s wider ambitions in the country. At the same time, a joint letter recently issued by Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski and German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle called for a revamped EU strategy toward Russia. Poland wants to limit Russian-German ties, or at the very least be involved in them within the EU format.
Germany is clearly important to both Russia and Poland. But what’s less clear is where exactly Germany stands on the issue at the moment. With the eurozone in crisis and Germany, its leader, trying to find a solution, energy relations with Russia or Poland — no matter how important they may prove to be in the future — are not currently at the top of Berlin’s agenda. And while Russia is trying to use its alliance offer to build leverage and show Germany it can help it through hard times, Germany is not operating on Russia’s timeline and will find ways to retain its own leverage vis-à-vis Moscow.
For now, Russia and Poland will continue to maneuver in their relationships with Germany — even as Berlin’s focus is set squarely on the crisis in the eurozone.
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