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UPDATE: Hurricane Earl

Posted by JayMan on Mon Aug 30 20:35:20 2010, in response to Re: Hurricane Earl, posted by JayZeeBMT on Mon Aug 30 09:23:18 2010.

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The storm is now already a cat 4. The current forecast brings it close to category 5, and I wouldn't be surprised if it reaches that strength.

This is all very bad for the Northeast -- the stronger the hurricane at peak strength, the stronger it will be upon arrival. Worse, the latest track is shifted further west (and that has been the trend with the forecasts). It looks like a Northeast landfall may be likely.

Looking at the latest sea surface temperature chart, Atlantic waters are warm (≥ 27° C) right up the Jersey coast. With a fast moving storm, as Earl is expected to be then, the hurricane might indeed maintain cat 3 strength upon landfall. If the path is a westerly path that brings it into CT, LI or the City, likely there will be significant damage in coastal areas in NJ and LI.

People should not wait until the end of the week to stock up supplies. Shopping should begin no later than Wednesday, as by then it will become clear if we will get a direct hit from the storm.

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