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| Re: Accident (By the numbers) (404154) | |||
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Re: Accident (By the numbers) |
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Posted by AlM on Sun Jan 18 06:38:12 2009, in response to Re: Accident (By the numbers), posted by LuchAAA on Sun Jan 18 02:22:35 2009. The odds against dying in plane crash aren't 1-in-millions when you fly monthly, or more frequently.Correct. If flying a commercial airliner is now at .03 deaths per 100 million passenger miles, then if you fly 10 million miles in your lifetime (which some businessmen do), your chance of dying in a commercial plane crash before you get to die of something else is somewhere around .003, or 0.3%. If you drive your car 10,000 miles a year for 60 years, always sober and carefully, you have about a 1 in 20,000 chance of dying each year, or also about .003, or 0.3%. The difference is that the one person has traveled 10 million miles and the other has traveled 600,000 miles in his lifetime. The frequent flyer is leading a lot more risky life in other ways too - he's probably a lot more likely to catch a serious illness and die of lack of proper medical care because he's too busy while traveling. My brother-in-law was a frequent flyer. Never had any close calls on a plane. He had a stroke on a business trip - he got decent care but not as good as he would have gotten at home just because it was a strange doctor, his wife and close colleagues weren't there to emphasize how unusual his behavior was (he would have gone to the doctor sooner if they had been), etc. |
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