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Re: USA being sensible with Taiwan; ambiguity is good

Posted by RonInBayside on Fri Sep 14 10:42:51 2007, in response to USA stabbing Taiwan over UN seat?, posted by Olog-hai on Fri Sep 14 02:22:33 2007.

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For decades, Taiwan has prospered under a veil of ambiguity. This has minimized the mainland's saber-rattling while allowing Taiwan's economy to boom.

The US does not want to encourage the hawks in Beijing's government to get into a direct shooting war. Taiwan's membership in the UN would brinmg it some benefits, but it isn't critical. It's not going to help Taipei do much it doesn't already do, and it will put Uncle Sam on the hook to defend the island.

If the Chinese assumed an overt attack posture, the US Seventh Fleet would have to enter the Taiwan Straits. I'm fine with that in an extreme emergency, but Taiwan's entry to the UN doesn't qualify as an extreme need.

US Administrations are looking to the future (neither Republicans no Democrats have encouraged Taiwan to officially declare independence) where, hopefully, the legislators in Beijing will be replaced by people with no stake in Taiwan. It happened in Russia: When Gorbachev replaced a long line of apparachiks like Brezhniev and Chernienko, the Warsaw Pact and Soviet Union entered their "terminal phase." And NATO did not have to fire a single shot.

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