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Chávez likely to succeed in eliminating term limits

Posted by Olog-hai on Tue Sep 11 00:58:22 2007

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Chávez likely to win end to term limits: pollsters

Mon Sep 10, 2007 6:37PM EDT

By Enrique Andres Pretel

CARACAS (Reuters) — Venezuela's leftist President Hugo Chavez is likely to win a referendum this year on scrapping term limits that would help clear a path for him to rule for decades, pollsters say.

The anti-U.S. leader included an end to term limits in a constitutional reform proposal that Venezuelans will vote on in December, sweetening what for many is a bitter pill with some populist measures, such as reducing the work day, they say.

Pollsters say the referendum will pass because it will be a straight "yes" or "no" on the overall package and will reflect majority support for a president who has used Venezuela's oil wealth to finance programs for the poor.

Thirty-one percent of voters plan to approve the referendum, while 27 percent would reject it, Hinterlaces, a local company often associated with the opposition, said on Monday in publishing a poll of 900 people on the referendum.

Many voters are undecided or plan to abstain, it said.

Chávez's reforms proposal also eliminates central bank autonomy, strengthens state expropriation powers and contains language that could curb the authority of elected regional officials.

With Latin Americans generally skeptical about presidents who want to change laws to extend their rule, Chávez's apparent moves to consolidate power have even drawn criticism from the second largest party supporting him.

But populist measures, including extending social security benefits, will likely win out, said Luis Vicente Leon of polling firm Datanalisis.

"In the over-arching proposal of the work day versus indefinite re-election, the positive response to the populist measures far outweighs any negative associated with more controversial aspects of the reform," he said.

CHÁVEZ RULES

U.S. officials and opposition leaders fear Chávez will use the power he has amassed in Congress, the military, judiciary and state oil company to cling to office even if his popularity falls.

Chávez has repeatedly vowed he will govern until 2021 if he continues to win elections, and has sometimes said he could stay in power well beyond that.

When he took office in 1999, he was due to leave only five years later but he pushed a constitutional change that has helped keep him in charge. Without another reform, he would have to leave in 2013.

Chávez led a failed coup in 1992 but is a proven winner at the ballot box, winning 11 times in elections or referendums.

Pollsters doubt many voters will make a detailed analysis of the changes in 33 articles of the constitution.

"Chávez will try to pin the reform on his popularity … so that any constitutional debate is relegated to an after thought," said Oscar Schemel of Hinterlaces.

Pollsters generally believe Chávez is popular with a solid majority of Venezuelans, who back his spending on subsidized food, schools and clinics.

Chávez will face the referendum vote a year after winning a landslide re-election. He is one of Latin America's most popular leaders despite a year of difficulties, including protests at his refusal to renew an opposition TV station's license.

Santiago Castillo, a boatman in the village of Choroni, said he supports Chávez because fishermen can now obtain spare parts more easily.

"If Chávez says it's good … he knows, he sticks up for the poor," he said of the reform proposal. "I'll vote for whatever Chávez says. Long live Chávez."

© Reuters 2007. All rights reserved.

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