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| Re: $83 million (1979785) | |||
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Re: $83 million |
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Posted by AlM on Sun Feb 4 10:34:54 2024, in response to Re: $83 million, posted by Peter Rosa on Sun Feb 4 09:37:22 2024. No doubt the actuaries consulted with physicians.The closest mortality table that I know of to what the actuaries could have legitimately used is a table giving your probability of dying at a given age if you are a disabled white collar male. (Disabled means qualifying for social security disability payments.) The sample size for such a table is in the tens or hundreds of thousands of people. Such a table alone would have given a probability far higher than 50% of living at least 5 additional years at age 60. Adjusting the probability of dying upward because of a prior severe heart attack in middle age would be based only on published medical studies using vastly smaller data sets. I suppose a reputable actuary might have done that, with a physician guiding them to the best detailed medical studies to use. Obviously the result would be a wide range of probabilities. The fact that Johnson died right at the mean point of the range is sheer chance. Even more useful would be actual observations from Johnson's personal physician concerning his blood pressure, symptoms, medications, etc. |
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