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It's been a while since I posted about the 2020 polling bloodbath, so here we are again

Posted by Orange Blossom Special on Thu May 13 22:06:00 2021

A1M is likely still in denial after the 90th post.
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An expert panel assembled by the trade association representing pollsters released preliminary findings that found the polling in last year's election was the most inaccurate political polling in 40 years. The polls overestimated support for Democratic candidate Joe Biden by almost 4 percentage points in the final two weeks of the campaign, the Wall Street Journal reported Thursday.

It was a larger error than in 2016, when the polling overestimated support for Hillary Clinton by 1.3 points and Donald Trump shocked the world by winning the Electoral College and the presidency.

In fact, the last time pollsters were this wrong was way back in 1980, when the polls failed to predict the size of Ronald Reagan's landslide victory over Jimmy Carter, who performed 6 percentage points worse than the polls predicted.

In 2020, support for Democrats was overstated "in every type of contest we looked at: the national popular vote, the state-level presidential vote as well as senatorial and gubernatorial elections,'' said Joshua D. Clinton, a professor of political science at Vanderbilt University who was the lead expert on the panel put together by the American Association for Public Opinion Research.

"This was true no matter how respondents were polled. It didn't matter whether you're doing online or telephone polls. A similar level of error was pervasive,'' said Clinton, who discussed the preliminary findings at the trade association's annual conference Wednesday.

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