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| Re: Does Iran Already Have a Nuke? (147301) | |||
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Re: Does Iran Already Have a Nuke? |
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Posted by WillD on Tue Aug 29 16:16:03 2006, in response to Does Iran Already Have a Nuke?, posted by Mitch45 on Tue Aug 29 14:48:57 2006. Does your hysteria know no bounds? Go change your underwear and stop panicking at every bit of propoganda the Iranians put out. If nukes are such horrible things then why exactly does Israel maintain an active stockpile? You can thank Dubya's handling of Iraq and North Korea for Iran's program to develop nuclear weapons. If there's one lesson that would-be troublemakers around the world can draw from our actions in 2003 it's that if you have nukes we'll leave you alone, but if you're threatening to develop them we'll invade. Clearly the deterrant value of the nuclear weapon is worth quite a bit, even at blunting the lone remaining superpower. If the North Koreans can keep the US out of their country with nukes then the Iranians certainly will be likely to try the same method to keep us out. Now of course there were other deciding factors in our attacking Iraq, including promised oil windfalls, and Saddam's history of annexing neighboring countries, but to the Iranians comparing North Korea and Iraq and looking to learn from their experiences the presence of nuclear weapons must be a deciding factor.Do you honestly think Iran is so fucking stupid as to attack Israel? Israel is just about the only country to actually have a national missile defence system based around the indigenous (yet US funded) Arrow, and the US's Patriot missile systems. An air attack is out of the question because the US just kind of controls the intervening airspace over Iraq and Saudi Arabia. The Israelis could likely teach us a hell of lot about controlling imports so even a terrorist container bomb is likely out. Even if the US didn't get involved the effect on Iran would be murderous, since Israel has had a fully operational IRBM, and their pilots have demonstrated a capability to bluff their way through air space they do not control, and the Iranians lack the integrated defensive systems the Israelis have built up over the past 40 or so years. It's highly unlikely that the US would sit idly by while Israel and Iran waged nuclear war on each other. It's debatable as to whether we'd respond with nuclear weapons, but even a series of conventional strikes from the massed US naval and air forces in Iraq and Saudi Arabia following a nuclear confrontation with Israel would truely cripple Iran. The one thing that likely could be said with some certainty is that a nuclear shooting war between Israel and Iran is that Iran would almost certainly come out the worse for it. With 68 million citizens and virtually no defensive systems against ballistic missiles Iran would likely become a massive humanitarian disaster on a nationwide basis. I only hope that if Israel, Iran, and the US are stupid enough to start shooting nukes at each other we'll at least be smart enough to help those who survive to pick up the pieces and move on in both countries. However, more likely than not this is all propoganda. Sure, they may have uranium enrichment underway, they may be working on the implosion triggers, and all the other stuff needed for a nuclear weapon. However, they cannot hope to attack Israel and come out the victor and they have to know that. It's one thing to publically put your faith in god while privately acknowledging your nation's strategic handicaps, and quite another thing to commit suicide with an entire nation. Saber-rattling always sounds good with a nation's collection of backwards, redneck types, and if the current regime is to stay in power they need those redneck types to keep the more progressive elements in check. Claiming that Iran will have a nuclear arsenal and will use those weapons to destroy Israel sounds good in a speech, but totally ignores Israel and the US's vast superiority in weapons, delivery systems, and defensive systems. In the end all Iran's nuclear weapon development program may do is keep the US out if the inferences that can be drawn from our actions with North Korea hold true. |
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