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| Re: Gary Johnson's favorite foreign leader (1396630) | |||
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Re: Gary Johnson's favorite foreign leader |
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Posted by AlM on Sun Oct 2 10:38:23 2016, in response to Re: Gary Johnson's favorite foreign leader, posted by SMAZ on Sun Oct 2 10:17:33 2016. The trouble with estimating Trump is the uncertainty. If Russia invades Latvia he might end up handling it semi-OK. There's no certainty that he would do anything irreversible like starting a nuclear war.And he might not get a chance to bungle the economy catastrophically. Even if he gets Dodd-Frank repealed, there's a good chance that financial institutions would not be able to use their new found freedom to cause a worldwide panic before someone more sensible gets in. And massive tax cuts would do ongoing damage, but again nothing irreversible. So the only real reason for putting Trump in the top spot as a danger is the risk. His average outcome is just bad. It's his 2 standard deviation outcome that is the end of the world as we know it. |
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