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| Re: NY/NJ Erect Maginot Line Against Ebola (1236255) | |||
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Re: NY/NJ Erect Maginot Line Against Ebola |
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Posted by Stephen Bauman on Sat Oct 25 08:21:10 2014, in response to Re: NY/NJ Erect Maginot Line Against Ebola, posted by Express Rider on Sat Oct 25 00:45:25 2014. The Maginot Line didn't work in the spring of 1940The reason it did not work is that it wasn't complete. The Germans simply went around it. A quarantine at only JFK and EWK is meaningless. It won't protect even NY/NJ. All a traveler has to do is fly to Washington, Chicago or Atlanta and then travel over land to NY/NJ. I suspect that asymptotic travelers will opt for Washington. They have this choice: spend 21 days in quarantine or go through Dulles and take Amtrak to NYC. Do NY/NJ have the resources to place all the people entering NY/NJ in quarantine? The number of quarantine possibilities is running about 10 per day. Quarantining them for 21 days means they need quarantine facilities for 210 patients. Do they exist? The facilities have to be more elaborate than the fleabag hotels used to sequester juries. Ordinary hospital rooms are not appropriate. You need rooms with negative air pressure, trained personnel to care for those in quarantine, etc. You are talking about expenses that exceed those of an ICU. At $5K per patient-day that comes to $1.05 million per day. The incidence for Ebola among the people in the target areas is less than 0.1%. Therefore, this quarantine would be expected to trap one Ebola victim every 3 months at a cost of $105 million. That one person might have come in via Dulles, so the Maginot Line quarantine might not have trapped him. One reason cited for the high cost of medical care in the US is excessive use of defensive medicine. None of the examples used to demonstrate defensive medicine compares to the waste involved with the NY/NJ quarantine. |
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