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Queens Bus Redesign

Posted by Stephen Bauman on Sat Jun 7 14:22:31 2025

The MTA published a static GTFS schedule for the redesign to be implemented on June 29th. I'm in the midst of writing a general purpose app to evaluate differences in bus redesign proposals based in NYC. So far the only metrics I've obtained are Vehicle-Revenue-Miles (VRM) and Vehicle-Revenue-Hours(VRH). Their quotient is the average speed in MPH.

The July roll out is suspicious because demand will decline in July/August because school is out. This is a way to hide any redesign shortcomings because the redesign isn't being stress tested.

I compared the proposed July 2025 and July 2024 schedules for buses operating between stops in Queens.

The results are spectacular! The MTA has outdone itself. Not only average speed decrease in every time slot except midday on weekdays but the MTA has increased vehicle running time (VRH) and distance (VRM) to provide the slower service. I estimate the increased bus use would cost an additional $70 million on an annual basis.

My preliminary 24 hour results show decreases: from 9.07 to 9.00 mph on weekdays; from 9.64 to 9.49 on Saturdays and from 10.08 to 9.93 mph on Sundays. The one increase was from 8.79 to 8.85 mph on weekday middays (09:00:00 - 14:59:59).

It's conceivable that actual trips will be shorter despite the slower bus speeds. That's not because walking distance to/from bus stops would be less because these service improvements were obtained by reducing the bus stop count. It's conceivable that waiting time for buses would decrease, especially due to the increase in VRM and VRH. That's the next part of the analysis. It's also more involved.

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